College Basketball Best Bets Today: Back Michigan, Kentucky on Tuesday

It seems like after a herky jerky schedule through the month of December, we can finally get our college basketball best bets column on track on a more consistent basis.

Conference play is underway for all the major conferences and we have a loaded slate to comb through. Here are four games I bet on.

All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

For more plays posted before and after publish, you can check out all of them in real time here.

Column Record: 8-7-2 (+0.3 Units)

Michigan (-4) vs. Rutgers

Michigan was a team I was very high on before the season, and it has fallen way short of expectations, stumbling to a 7-5 record.

However, I still have a bit of faith in the Wolverines despite venturing to the always difficult Piscataway for a game against Rutgers. The Wolverines' biggest issue has been that they don't turn opponents over and are getting shredded in isolation situations. The team is allowing a bottom four assist rate and are still 41st in KenPom's defensive metric. Again, their one-on-one defending is piss poor, but overall the process doesn't seem that bad.

However, their defense should set up nicely against Rutgers offense that is generated on ball movement, 13th in assist rate. Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. are going to look to get to the rim off of ball movement, but I believe Michigan is going to be up to snuff in this matchup after getting blitzed by UCF in a misleading score line (the Black Knights couldn't miss if they tried in the second half).

This is a last stand for me with Michigan, as my numbers have this closer to 6. This team is better than their record indicates, and I think they get on track for this one.

Michigan -4 or better is a play for me.

Marquette (-110) vs. Providence

I was able to get this at +105 this morning, but I believe this is a great buy low sell high spot.

Providence looks like world beaters right now, winners of eight straight including wins over Texas Tech, Connecticut on the road and Seton Hall.

Meanwhile, Marquette looks to be sliding out of the national spotlight after dropping four straight to elite competition in UCLA, Xavier, Connecticut and Creighton (2OT).

I make this game about a PK, but believe there is cause to buy Marquette at home. For starters, the team plays at a fast tempo, 17th in the country, which is not common for Providence, who is 253rd in that metric.

The Friars have gotten by on strong interior defense with the likes of Nate Watson, but Marquette is a perimeter oriented team, top 50 in 3-point rate, I believe they can speed this game up and push this to a total that Providence isn't comfortable playing at. If the Golden Eagles get hot from 3, this game can get out of hand.

It's also worth noting that forward A.J. Reeves is a game-time decision for this one after leaving early in Providence's win over DePaul this weekend.

I'd play this ML up to -125.

Kansas (-6.5) vs. Oklahoma State

It's tough to get a read on Oklahoma State, who hasn't played since Dec. 18 due to COVID-19 protocols, but I like Kansas in this spot.

Bill Self is moving David McCormack to the bench after a slow start for the big man despite an 11-1 record. I'm not reading too much into it as the Jayhawks should handle Oklahoma State's turnover driven defense with ease. KU is 31st in protecting the rock and 32nd in generating second chances. The Pokes don't have the size inside, bottom third in limiting second chances, nor the scoring prowess to keep up, outside the top 100 in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric.

Remy Martin is expected to be available and I believe Kansas has a significant edge along the perimeter with Ochai Agbaji hitting on more than 45% of his 3-point tries.

I'd play this one up to -7.

Kentucky (+2) vs. LSU

I did get Kentucky +3, and there were +3.5's in the market, but there has been buyback on the Wildcats. This is my last buy point for UK and I'll count +2 for the column.

While Kentucky struggled in its first true road game of the season against Notre Dame, I believe that the Wildcats have the shooting edge to keep pace with LSU on the road.

Kellan Grady is one of the best shooters in the country (38-of-76 on the year) and the Tigers are due for some regression defending the 3, allowing opponents to hit on 27% of attempts from beyond the arc.

LSU has the best defense in the country and should thrive off a home crowd, but we saw the Tigers struggle in their first game against elite competition last week, a 15-point loss to Auburn. I think at +2 or higher we are getting a good number on Kentucky that should clean the glass with National Player of the Year contender Oscar Tshiebwe anchoring a unit that is hauling in more than 43% of available opportunities.

I personally make Kentucky slightly favored as I believe LSU is a bit overvalued after a hot start against softer competition.