College Basketball Best Bets Today (Back Two Totals, Georgia Tech Upset on March 8)
By Reed Wallach
Conference Tournament week is finally here and we are rolling after a strong weekend.
While I didn't run a best bets column yesterday, we cleared the board with plays that were tracked on betstamp. With conference tournament games it's imperative to grab numbers early as a ton of steam comes in with the quick turnarounds of games. Lines don't get posted in a traditional manner so you have to move quick, so I advise you check out my betstamp for my plays in real time.
Anyway, we are now back in the green for the year after the last few days and a handful of major conference tournaments get started on Tuesday. Here's what I played with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:
Column Record: 91-82-3 (+4.58 Units)
NC State vs. Clemson OVER 143.5
I show a slight number edge on the Wolfpack, but can't imagine betting them given how dismal they have looked in ACC play. However, I'm going to be looking at the over for several reasons.
First, NC State's issues mainly come on the defensive end, ranking 257th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, but are 66th on offense. The team is top 15 in limiting turnovers and are a fine 3-point shooting team against a Clemson club that allows the second highest 3-point rate in ACC play.
Meanwhile, Clemson is also fine at protecting the rock, 60th in the country, and are shooting 3's at a high level this season, 43rd nationally. Against a NC State team that doesn't play a lick of defense, I think the Tigers get whatever they want on that end.
Both teams are more than capable from the charity stripe, and each get there at a top 100 clip, if this game is relatively close late to push this over the total, each clocking in at north of 72%, so I think we see a higher scoring game.
PICK: OVER 143.5, play to 144
Georgia Tech (+105) vs. Louisville
I'm not all to sure why Louisville is receiving credit from the oddsmakers in this one. The Cardinals look like they have no interest in continuing on this season, dropping their last four games to close out the regular season by an average margin of 17.8 points.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech presents a unique 1-3-1 zone defense that isn't the easiest to prep for, and a Cards team that is just going through the motions may not have much interest in competing in this one, and Josh Pastner's team just beat Boston College in overtime to cap off the regular season.
Georgia Tech's offense is brutal at times, but Louisville is bottom three in ACC play in turnover rate while GT's zone generates turnovers at the second highest clip, which can create easy buckets against a sloppy Louisville offense.
I don't make a crazy number edge, but Louisville's energy is always a question and the GT zone can give an undisciplined team some trouble.
LEAN: Georgia Tech +105, play to -110
South Dakota State vs. North Dakota State OVER 150.5
South Dakota State is shaping up to be a true dark horse in the NCAA Tournament, but must take care of North Dakota State first.
While these two teams played close both times, I give the nod to them based on their offensive prowess, but I don't see much value on the spread. That being said, I have a play on the over.
Both games cruised over this listed total in the regular season, scoring 176 and 156 in the two games. The first game closed 152.5, and the second 154.5. While this game is on a neutral, I don't agree with this swift line move.
Neither team generates turnovers, each outside the top 300 nationally, and both shoot over 77% from the charity stripe with the two highest free throw rates. I envision both offenses should be operate with maximum efficiency given the lack of turnovers being caused.
I don't see many stops in this one and I also like the idea of playing this over considering we can see a ton of fouls at the end as it's a win or go home game. I don't see the losing team punting this game late.
PICK: OVER 150.5, play to 152.5
College Basketball Best Bets
- Parlay: Delaware/Gonzaga ML Parlay (-111)
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!