College Basketball Underdog Pick of the Day (Providence is Live to Upset Kansas)

It has been a chaotic NCAA Tournament with upsets happening nightly over the past week and change.

Which favorite will go down on Friday in the Sweet 16? There are two heavy favorites in Purdue and Kansas, who face No. 15 St. Peter's and No. 4 Providence. The Jayhawks are the lone remaining No. 1 seed left in the NCAA Tournament, should they be on upset alert?

The odds may say no, the Jayhawks are 7-point favorite with a total set at 141.5 points at WynnBET Sportsbook, but I'm betting against it. Here's why I'm backing Providence to win outright on Friday:

Providence (+265) vs. Kansas

While many have discussed at length about the 'luck' factor related to the Friars, who amounted an 11-2 record in games decided by five or less this season, this is a veteran bunch who has made living off of finding ways to win.

They will be going up against a talented No. 1 seed Kansas squad, but Bill Self's team has been mediocre at best on the defensive side of the ball. For starters, the team doesn't excel anywhere on D, ranking in the middle of the pack in turnovers forced and defensive rebounding rate.

Further, ShotQuality ranks the Jayhawks defense 46th in the country, and gives the team an adjusted record of 24-12. This means the team has benefitted from some shot variance in their favor.

Providence may not be the most lethal perimeter shooting team but they have a reliable big man in Nate Watson and capable 3-point threats around Al Durham in Jared Bynum and AJ Reeves, who both shot north of 38% from beyond the arc this season.

Overall, Kansas struggled to put away a Creighton team down their two most impactful players in the Round of 32, and the team has won close games all season. For what it's worth, Providence is 8-2 as an underdog against the spread, while the Jayhawks are 14-16 as a favorite this season.

Yes, Kansas has the star power with Ochai Agbaji and a healthy Remy Martin, but I think they are going to struggle to get enough stops to pull away from the veteran Friars who have found a way to outperform expectations all season.

I'm interested in the Friars on the moneyline as well. I alluded to it earlier, but this team has found a way to win close games all season, why can't we get one more in a hectic Tournament that has seen every other No. 1 seed go down. Kansas has had closing out teams and winning with margin all season long, maybe their defensive flaws cost them their season against a relentless Providence team.

PICK: Providence +7, 0.5 Units Providence ML (+265)

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