College Football Bets to Make Before Lines Move (Nebraska is Live Underdog vs. Illinois)

College football betting markets start on Sunday afternoon when openers are posted and the market matures around a series of bets.

Bets don't close where they open and it is advantageous to be ahead of particular line moves through key numbers and it could be the difference between winning and losing a bet. Over the long haul, getting closing line value and beating the closing number is a winning formula. You may not notice it short term, but it shows up in your long term results.

Over at The Early Reed, our live college football betting show, we have a 35-27-1 against the spread record, beating the closing line with regularity. You can watch the full episode below, but here are three bets to make for Week 9 before the line moves:

Illinois vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick

This is a rare spot for Illinois, who deserves a ton of praise for their 6-1 spot, entering as a road favorite expected to win by multiple scores.

They will face a Nebraska team that, like Illinois, is off of a bye and is likely the best offense they have faced this season. While Illinois is an elite defensive unit, they may be benefitting from facing a bunch of listless offenses. The Cornhuskers are 21st in success rate this season and have a top 15 offensive line in terms of line yards.

Just remember two weeks ago that Illinois was catching 6.5 points at home against Minnesota. Yes, they won, but this is a different expectation for this one and Nebraska has been playing spirited ball for Mickey Joseph of late, beating a stout Rutgers defense on the road and covering as a two possession underdog against Purdue.

I think the Cornhuskers are super live for an outright upset, but at over a touchdown this is a great bet.

PICK: Nebraska +7.5

Cal vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

This may be painful, but I'm asking you once again to back Cal (after a cover last week) to cover against an explosive Oregon team.

Yes, the Ducks are fresh off a demolition against UCLA in a nationally televised matchup, 45-30, but can they be fat and happy against a middling Cal team on the road? Absolutely.

This is the preferred situation for Bears coach Justin Wilcox, who is now 23-9-1 against the spread as an underdog and an insane 17-3 ATS as a dog of a touchdown or more.

I think Cal can stay within shouting distance at home against an Oregon team who won't be incentivized to run up the score like they have the last six weeks (49 points per game). The Cal defense is above the national average in explosive run and pass defense and this Oregon defense is still suspect despite the double digit win over UCLA.

The Bruins still averaged over six yards per play and if not for some red zone failures could've been within one score down the stretch. Oregon will score a ton, that's just what they do, but this is a huge number to cover on the road against a coach that thrives in this situation.

PICK: Cal +17.5

Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Texas A&M's offense is as underwhelming as any unit in the country, averaging about 18 points per game. Jimbo Fisher's offense lacks creativity and explosiveness, evident in the fact that they haven't broken 30 points in a calendar year now.

It likely won't get any easier for the Aggies at home against Ole Miss after they ruled out three offensive linemen for the rest of the season due to to injuries. The team will likely go to Haynes King yet again, but this offense is likely going to struggle to put points on the board against an Ole Miss team that has is 32nd in yards per play allowed and 21st in the country in tackles for loss.

While the Rebels play fast and allowed 45 points last week, LSU has shown the ability to stretch the field vertical and has a dynamic quarterback in Jayden Daniels. That's not Texas A&M.

On the other side, the Ole Miss offense is run heavy, but is battling some injuries to a deep running back group, namely two transfers in Ulysses Bentley and Zach Evans. Even if both go, they will face a battle tested and still strong Texas A&M defense that is 32nd in yards per play and 35th in allowing explosive runs. On the road, I think we see the Aggies D show up.

Ole Miss came down to Earth as the schedule got tougher last week, while the Aggies defense should be battle tested and should make this more of a rock fight than this total indicates.

I like this under through the key number of 55.

PICK: UNDER 55

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