College Football Betting Trends: Iowa's Offense Sets Another Record in Week 11

Iowa has been at the center of the college football betting market, but not for anything to be proud of.

Yet again, Iowa is setting a record for a historically low over/under in its game this week at Rutgers. This is the third time this season that Iowa is setting this record, which headlines our weekly betting trend article.

We'll also take a look at James Franklin's stats as a home underdog as his Penn State Nittany Lions get ready to play the undefeated Michigan Wolverines and how the new clock has impacted high totals.

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Iowa's Offense Continues to Embarrass

Iowa has set a new low. The team is playing in the first game that will close with a total below 30 in college football history (since betting lines have been tracked). However, this is just clearing a new bar for offensive futility for the Hawkeyes, who played in a game with a total of 30.5 last week against Northwestern, winning 10-7, and several weeks ago against Minnesota with the same total, which they lost 12-10.

So, Iowa is now inside the 20s in terms of totals but has gone under in both of the prior instances that the team has tied or broken the record for low totals against a Rutgers offense that is around the national average of EPA/Play on offense and elite on defense, top 20 in EPA/Play.

If you can stomach to watch this one, bet accordingly.

New Clock Update on High Totals

A lot was made about the new running clock in college football this season, as the NCAA changed its rules, no longer stopping the clock after first downs unless it's under two minutes in the first half.

This, of course, shortened the number of plays each team ran and possessions each offense had, and it impacted high-totaled games quite a bit, as the first five games with an over/under of 70 or more went under the total.

However, it appears that teams have adjusted nicely to these new rules as the last four games have gone over the closing total of 69.5 or more. Since Week 5, the four games I'm referencing have soared over the total.

• USC vs. Colorado (total 74.5): 89 total points
• Abielene Christian vs. North Texas (70.5): 76 total points
• North Texas vs. Memphis (70): 87 total points
• Washington vs. USC (75.5): 94 total points

There may not be a clear reason as to why these games are flying over, North Texas and USC have two of the 10 worst defenses in terms of EPA/Play, but it appears that teams have adjusted to the new rules and it's having less of an impact than it did earlier in the year.

USC is in another game with a high total, traveling to face the No. 1 offense in success rate in Oregon in Week 11 with a sky-high total of 73.5.

Trust James Franklin as an Underdog

James Franklin and his Penn State Nittany Lions face arguably the best team in the country in Michigan on Saturday, as his team is in a rare spot as a home underdog. Since taking over in 2014, Franklin's Penn State teams have been a home pooch only 10 times, going 5-5 against the number with two outright upsets.

So, there's not much going on in terms of historical indicators of Franklin thriving as a home underdog, but can he show up in a big spot against a vaunted Michigan team? I broke this game down in full here, make sure to check it out before firing a bet on this game!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!