College Football Betting Trends to Know in Week 9: How Utah Performs at Home, USC's Non Cover Run
By Reed Wallach
The PAC-12 continues to be one of the most followed conferences this season, just look at last week's primetime thriller between USC and Utah.
The two teams take the center of our weekly trends article as Utah returns to the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium, where the team has thrived under head coach Kyle Whittingham, but is an underdog against a vaunted Oregon team. How about USC? Who is struggling to cash for bettors after a successful 2022 against the spread? Lastly, we hit on Oregon State's road woes against the spread in the new role as a favorite.
Here are our betting trends to keep an eye on relative to three key PAC-12 games, but first let me tell you about Caesars Sportsbook, which matches all new users' first bet up to $1,000! All you have to do is opt-in below!
Utah's Excellence at Rice-Eccles Stadium
Utah returns home after getting the better of USC on a last-second field goal, a place where the Utes have thrived under Whittingham.
Since taking over as head coach 19 years ago, Utah is 57-46-2 against the spread (ATS) at home. The team is known to have one of the best home-field advantages in college football, particularly as the team has risen to excellence in the last decade. The Utes have been 47-14 at home straight up since 2013.
However, Utah is in a rare spot as a home underdog against one of the best teams in the country in Oregon. The Ducks are laying nearly a touchdown at Rice-Eccles, making the team home underdogs for the first time since 2020 when the team lost to USC 33-17 in the COIVD-shortened season.
Overall, the team is 9-7 under Whittingham as a home pooch but will look to thrive off the home crowd's energy in what is shaping up to be a tough spot for the team after a thrilling comeback on the road that kept the team's PAC-12 title hopes alive.
USC's Inability to Cover
Last regular season, USC was kind to bettors, covering eight of 12 games en route to a PAC-12 title game, but we are seeing some harsh regression settle in for the Trojans, who led the nation in turnover margin last season.
This year, the team ran it up on lowly foes early in the year, but the Trojans haven't covered in five straight, now 2-6 on the year against the spread.
USC continues to be a talented roster, but maybe not as elite as some had hoped, losers of two straight and outside the top 100 in key defensive statistics like EPA/Rush.
The team is on the road against a Cal team coming off a BYE week that is top 10 in EPA/Rush and offensive line yards that covered against USC on the road last season, losing 41-35 in a high-scoring affair.
You can read more on this one here, but USC's run of non-covers doesn't make it any easier to get to the window on them as oddsmakers are trying to find the bottom of the spiraling Trojans.
Oregon State's Home/Road Splits
Jonathan Smith has been a cash cow for bettors since arriving in Corvallis, Oregon to coach the Beavers to national prominence. However, most of his good fortune comes at home.
Smith is 37-22-1 against the spread as head coach of the Beavers. However, that number is skewed towards him being 18-10-1 at home. On the road, Smith has a respectable 16-12 ATS mark, but that number is also clouding the situation the Beavers are in this season.
Oregon State is a dismal 2-6 ATS as a road favorite, including losing at Washington State this season as a three-point road favorite. Similar to Wazzu, Arizona is a high-powered offense that can challenge Oregon State's secondary and potential cover as a small home underdog.
For more on this one, check out our betting preview here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!