College Football Betting Trends for Week 10: Can you Trust Kirby Smart to Cover as a Double Digit SEC Favorite?

It's the first weekend of November and we have some massive matchups on the docket, including Georgia's toughest matchup of the season when Missouri comes between the hedges to face the two-time defending champions.

Kirby Smart has built a near dynasty in Athens, but how has he fared when expected to win big in SEC play as head coach of Georgia? We got you covered with one of the few trends we pulled to get you ready for a weekend of wagering on college football.

Meanwhile, there are starting to become some crazy totals taking place every week. Whether it's the weather in the midwest impacting play that leads to totals approaching 30 or two service academies playing for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, there are some low totals on the board in Week 10. We help guide you with how those polarizing totals are doing for sports bettors this season.

Get all our picks against the spread (ATS) for EVERY Top 25 matchup on Saturday HERE!

Kirby Smart's Record Against the Spread as Head Coach of Georgia

Georgia's coach has turned the Bulldogs into the class of college football, 89-15 in eight years in Athens. The team has lost one game in two-plus years this season and back-to-back National Championships.

When a team is this good, it's sometimes hard to get a fair price on backing the team to cover a point spread because the gap is that large.

Since taking over as head coach for Georgia, Smart's Bulldogs are 68-3 straight up as double-digit favorites against an SEC opponent. The team has been expected to dominate and it has done well enough to win, but not necessarily to cover. Georgia is only 36-34-1 against the spread (ATS) when laying double digits.

The Bulldogs are laying 15 points on Saturday at home. No, they aren't likely to lose, but it may be hard for them to cover based on historical trends.

How to Bet Low Over/Under Totals

With the weather changing as we hit the middle of fall and into winter, wind is starting to play a serious factor in games. Also, some of the offenses on display weekly are playing prehistoric football it appears with teams' inability to pass the ball.

The opening total of Iowa vs. Northwestern was at 29.5 on Sunday and has since been bet up to 31.5. Meanwhile, the Army vs. Air Force game and Nebraska vs. Michigan State game each have a total below 35.

These are incredibly low totals, but for good reason.

In 15 cases where the over/under is 35.5 or below, the under has hit in 10 of those games (67%).

What History Says About Army vs. Air Force

As noted a few weeks ago when Navy and Air Force met, service academies go under at a historic rate.

Since 2005, the under in service academy vs. service academy games are 44-10-1 according to Action Labs after the aforementioned Air Force game went under the total of 34.5 with a 17-6 final.

This total is even lower, sitting at 31.5 as of this writing, but history says not to be fazed. Why is that? I explained a few weeks back:

While blind trends aren't a way to make profitable bets, there is some substance to this one. The two teams play at the two slowest tempos in the country and run at the highest rates in the nation. With limited plays and few explosive plays, there are limited scoring chances for each team.

Further, with the unique triple option sometimes leading to chunk plays on a given week against teams less familiar and used to the scheme, that's not the case here because both teams run the option!

If you want to use these trends to your advantage this weekend, make sure yo do it at Caesars Sportsbook, who is matching all new users first bet up to $1,000! Just use the link below to opt in!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!