College Football Expert Picks for Conference Championship Weekend: Value on Total in Big Ten Championship Game

Nov 19, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) passes in
Nov 19, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) passes in / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Champions will be crowned on Saturday during Conference Championship week and we have betting previews for every single game here.

The two biggest games start in the afternoon and evening on Saturday with the top two teams in the country, No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Michigan, looking to cement their status as the top two teams in the country.

Here is our best bet for this one with a play on the side in the SEC Championship Game and the total in the Big Ten Championship Game.

LSU vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

The big news ahead of this one is the status of Daniels, who has taken a big step forward late in the season as LSU made their surprising conference title game push. He left the Texas A&M loss in the fourth quarter, but he will play on Saturday despite being potentially limited.

Daniels is important, of course, but the Bayou Bengals are already up against it while facing this Georgia offense that is top 10 in yards per play, points per drive and success rate. The Bulldogs offensive line has allowed seven sacks on the season and are converting more than 51% of their third downs.

This is a team that keeps the ball on the ground a ton to open up their passing game with Stetson Bennett and do it all tight end, Brock Bowers, among others. I expect Georgia to crush LSU on the ground, where the Tigers rank 78th in EPA/Play this season defending the run. Georgia is second in the nation on an EPA/Rush basis and should put the Tigers in a negative game script.

With Daniels hobbled with an ankle injury, I don't expect LSU's offense to hold up against the Georgia defense that allows less than three yards per carry and about one point per drive on the year. While the team's pressure rates are low, that is by design as they know they can win on the line of scrimmage without sending blitz packages. The team is fifth in defensive line yards, a sign that they shut down the run game, but only have 22 sacks on the year, 90th in the country. However, the team is third in success rate allowed and top 40 against the explosive run and pass.

PICK: Georgia -17.5

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan was able to hit several big pass plays to push ahead of Ohio State on the road and then put it to rest with a pair of 50+ yard touchdown runs. However, Purdue should be wise to that as they are strong at limiting explosive plays. The team is 21st in terms of EPA/Play on defense and is top 40 in havoc rate, a calculation of the ability to generate tackles for loss, passes defended and turnovers.

The Wolverines caught Ohio State off guard with their ability to take the top off the defense, but lost in that is that star running back Blake Corum was a non factor with a banged up knee and the run game had less than 10 yards in the first half. Purdue's defense is built to bend but not break and should be able to keep this game low scoring.

However, I don't trust the team's pass happy offense to beat Michigan through the air. Michigan is top five in terms of EPA/Pass and will look to keep this game on the ground and bleed the clock when they have the ball. The Wolverines are 123rd in terms of plays per minute and should move the ball, but not with explosive plays.

I think the Ohio State game is taking people off the scent that Michigan has been an under team all season and I'll back the under down to the key number of 51.

PICK: Under 51.5

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.