College Football Expert Picks for Week 12: Best Bets for Michigan vs. Ohio State and South Carolina vs. Clemson
By Reed Wallach
Rivalry week is here and we at BetSided have a ton of game previews for you on the entire Week 13 slate.
However, there are two games that stick out in particular on this pivotal slate of games, namely No. 3 Michigan traveling to face No. 2 Ohio State in The Game. However, there are plenty of other important games that have College Football Playoff implciations as well, including the suddenly resurgent South Carolina Gamecocks, who travel to face Clemson, who is back in the mix for a CFP berth.
Here are a pair of ways to play these two rivalry showdowns.
Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick
As discussed on this week's Early Reed with Alex Gletiman of BuckeyeHuddle.com, both teams enter this game severely wounded.
On the Michigan side, starting running back and Heisman Trophy contender Blake Corum left last week's game early with a knee injury and his backup Donovan Edwards has missed the last handful of games with what is reportedly a hand injury. Meanwhile, the team has been without star tight end Erik All and other TE Luke Schoonmaker has been nursing an injury. Lastly, standout offensive lineman Trevor Keegan has missed the last two games. We won't learn much leading up to the game from coach Jim Harbaugh, but this is all stuff to monitor.
As for Ohio State, preseason No. 1 wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hardly played this season with a hamstring injury, but the emergence of Marvin Harrison Jr. has negated that. Meanwhile, running back TreVeyon Henderson has battled injuries all season and Miyan Williams was carted back to the locker room two weeks ago.
However, OSU has the depth to withstand these injuries. The team has showcased different ways to win all season, both through the air with the second best passing offense on an EPA/Play basis this season, and on the ground with an offensive line that is fifth in line yards and a ground game that is second in yards per carry. Even with a third string running back potentially, Dallas Hayden ran for 147 yards last week against Maryland.
As for the other side, a hobbled Corum is a crushing blow for this Michigan offense. The team has not been tested at all this season and has been living ahead of schedule due to an effective ground game. However, this will be the toughest defensive line they have faced all season, the Buckeyes are second in limiting yards per carry and 41st in tackles for loss.
If Michigan is behind schedule, it will force J.J. McCarthy to throw, and I'm skeptical that he will take advantage against a potentially soft Ohio State secondary. Michigan hasn't had to throw much this season to get by the second easiest strength of schedule in the country, ranking outside the top 100 in pass plays of more than 10 yards and outside the top 90 in pass yards of more than 20 yards.
On the other side, the Ohio State passing game will be the toughest test this Michigan secondary has faced this season. The only time the Wolverines faced a plus passing game was Maryland, a team that racked up nearly 400 total yards and scored 27 points in Ann Arbor.
Sure, you can say that Ohio State just let up 30 to that same Maryland team, but the Wolverines don't have the explosive pass catchers on the outside to challenge the Buckeyes.
Even if the Michigan defense holds down the Buckeyes for the first half, the team is second in EPA/Play this season, I believe that a wounded group of skill position players will put too much pressure on McCarthy that the Wolverines eventually wilt away.
I think Ohio State wins this one convincingly and moves onto the Big Ten title game. I personally make the Buckeyes around 10-point favorites, which is where they were in the lookahead markets just a few weeks ago.
South Carolina vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick
The line does seem fair, but I think there's cause for going OVER on the total.
We have seen flashes of South Carolina's vertical passing game against the likes of Arkansas and Tennessee this season. While Clemson does bolster strong pass defense marks, 31st in EPA/Play, a lot of that is a product of the pressure they get up front.
South Carolina's offense leaves some to be desired on the offensive line, but Spencer Rattler has been able to generate chunk plays this season, 44th in pass plays of 20 yards or more. This is a young Clemson secondary that is 47th in explosive pass defense.
Clemson's offense should be able to push around South Carolina's defensive line, the team is 118th in line yards this season, and establish the run with ease against a unit that allows 4.7 yards per carry.
Don't sleep on Shane Beamer's coaching for the Gamecocks, he is a special teams coordinator by trade and has a top five unit. We have seen the Clemson special teams lead to issues against the likes of Notre Dame.
I expect points on the board in this one and I'll take the over.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.