College Football Expert Picks: How to Bet Red River Showdown, Alabama vs. Texas A&M

The stakes continue to grow with every passing week in college football.

Two undefeated teams meet in Dallas, Texas in a possible College Football Playoff elimination game when Texas and Oklahoma play on Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, Alabama continues its climb back into the College Football Playoff picture with a road trip to College Station to face Texas A&M. Both teams are unbeaten in SEC play thus far and this can serve as a pace-setting match-up for each team in the crowded SEC West.

Here's how I'm betting the two biggest games on the Week 6 slate:

Oklahoma vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Texas has been the more shiny product of the Big 12 thus far, beating Alabama on the road and boasting third choice in the Heisman Trophy market Quinn Ewers, while Oklahoma has won every game by double digits both with its defense (shutting down Cincinnati to six points on the road) and its offense (boat-racing Iowa State to the tune of 50 points in Week 5).

Texas enters as a considerable favorite and rightfully so given its mix of talent on both sides of the ball and ability to generate scoring opportunities through the air and on the ground.

The Longhorns check in the top 20 in terms of yards per play, mixing in a vertical passing game that features more than nine yards per pass attempt with a ground game that is racking up nearly five yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has benefitted from an aggressive passing game with senior quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who is pushing the ball down the field at over 10 yards per pass (11th in the country) and completing 76% of his passes (third). However, the Sooners are rushing for less than four yards per carry, the bottom half of the nation.

This is the turning point in this matchup. If Oklahoma is going to be forced into obvious passing situations, I'll rely on the Texas defense to get enough stops to pull away and cover this point spread. The Longhorns are inside the top 40 nationally in terms of rush defense and coverage grading, per Pro Football Focus, meaning that Gabriel will need to make up for the team's lack of rush success rate with big throws downfield. That may be tough to come by against a Longhorns defense that is top 20 in EPA/Pass this season.

OU's defense gives me pause in this game. The team stymied Iowa State in the second half but also allowed an explosive play rate of 10% (70th percentile compared to games in 2022). The team was outgained by SMU in a 17-point win at home but has allowed a third down conversion percentage of 27% and red zone touchdown percentage of 37%, both top 11 in the nation. The tam has succeeded in high leverage situations, but those results are fickle, ripe to be exposed by a better opponent.

This team is smoke-and-mirrors and I believe its reckoning comes on Saturday afternoon.

The Sooners are a serious regression candidate when the competition picks up, I believe the Longhorns are a cut above and take care of business in what should be a high-scoring affair.

PICK: Texas -5.5

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Alabama vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Texas A&M passed its first test with Max Johnson, beating Arkansas on a neutral field by double digits. The team will return to College Station to face Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, who have won three straight after losing to Texas in Week 2.

Alabama's offense looked the part against a hapless Mississippi State defense, scoring 40 points on less than 60 plays, but the unit still grades out as an average passing group, 79th in EPA/Play and 82nd in success rate, per gameonpaper.com.

That's the key to beating this Aggies defense, and I'm not sure Jalen Milroe is equipped to take advantage. Milroe started last season in place of Bryce Young in this very matchup, completing 12-of-19 passes for 111 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, a 24-20 home win. Alabama was able to keep the game on the ground and averaged nearly six yards per carry, but that won't work against this healthy and vaunted Aggies front in 2023.

Texas A&M is 23rd in EPA/Rush and tied for the 10th-best success rate against the rush this season. The team is vulnerable defending the pass, Miami showed that the secondary is a weak point, averaging more than 11 yards per drop back and scoring 48 points in the team's win against the Aggies in Week 2, but I don't believe this Alabama offense is built to expose that.

While Max Johnson is a slight downgrade from Conner Weigman, who is out for the year with a foot injury, I believe Bobby Petrino can scheme up efficient pass plays as the Aggies offense ranks fourth in the country in passing grades, per Pro Football Focus. Last season, Texas A&M was helpless on offense, this season's unit looks like one of the best in the country.

Both teams have issues defending explosive passes, but I trust the home team to find those through the course of the game. Alabama is 88th in explosive pass defense while Texas A&M is bottom five in the country.

Milroe has started to turn it on after regaining his job as the starting quarterback for the Crimson Tide, but I do question if he is able to connect downfield to expose the weak part of the Aggies' defense. Further, the Alabama offensive line presents serious concerns, bottom 10 in sacks allowed this season. Texas A&M ranks third in sacks this season and can put the Crimson Tide behind the sticks early.

Alabama was beat on a few deep shots against Texas, and the Aggies have a pass-catching group that rivals the Longhorns. Given the questions about the Alabama offense, I need to take the Aggies as a field-goal underdog.

PICK: Texas A&M +3

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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