College Football Expert Picks Week 10: How to Bet Georgia vs. Tennessee, Clemson vs. Notre Dame, Alabama vs. LSU
By Reed Wallach
As we hit November, we are treated to a handful of games with College Football Playoff implications.
The two biggest games of Saturday's Week 10 slate are in the SEC with two of the top three teams in the first CFP rankings, Tennessee and Georgia meet in Athens, and Alabama travels to Death Valley to face LSU. Also, Clemson is in South Bend to face Notre Dame.
Here are our best bets for the marquee matchups on Saturday's Week 10 card:
Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
Tennessee plays at the third-fastest pace in the country in terms of plays per minute, relying on the frenetic tempo to catch defenses in vulnerable packages where Heisman Trophy favorite Hendon Hooker can take advantage. However, Georgia generates more pressure while dropping back in coverage and has the cornerbacks to limit Hooker's ability to get the ball out quickly.
The Vols will score, and the return of wide receiver Cedric Tillman from an ankle injury last week is a huge boost. However, Georgia still ranks No. 4 in success rate against the pass this season.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' offense may be the most underrated unit in the country. The unit is second in success rate, actually better than Tennessee's (eighth) and faces a very suspect Vols secondary that is 98th defending the pass this season.
Tennessee is well regarded for their rush defense, top 15 in the country against the run, but Georgia has the most physical offensive line in the country, top 10 in line yards, rush yards per carry and tackles for loss allowed.
The Vols closed as nine point underdogs at home against Alabama three weeks ago, and I rate Georgia better than Alabama and have all season. While Tennessee has far exceeded expectations, I still make this game -10 and will lay it with the Bulldogs, who has the physical advantage and the schematic advantage to limit this Tennessee offense. -- Reed Wallach
PICK: Georgia -8.5
Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick
Oftentimes, games like this come down to the quarterback position. Who has more poise under pressure and who can make the plays in the biggest moments. That has been Bryce Young his entire career at Alabama and is the main reason that he will be a top 5 pick in the NFL Draft -- even at his size. Jayden Daniels has been much better for LSU lately, throwing for 248 and two touchdowns against Ole Miss and he ran for 121 yards on 23 carries and had three rushing touchdowns in that game. Daniels is not Bryce Young caliber of quarterback, but he might only be one step down right now.
Alabama’s defense is better. They are 14th in total defense and have Will Anderson Jr. on the edge. Anderson hasn’t been quite as dominant this season as he was last year, but this could be his audition tape for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft come April. Alabama is the better team, but I would not have expected it to be favored by 13.5 on the road.
Alabama has dominated this series when it has been played in Death Valley, they are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings there. If I were to pick a side, I’d lean Bama. But instead, I’ll just take the under. Even in this high-flying era of the SEC, defense usually prevails in this rivalry, as the under is 10-3 in the last 13. -- Josh Yourish
Pick: Under 56.5 (-110)
Clemson vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
I think this is a poor matchup for a limited Notre Dame offense. The Irish hung 41 points on the road last week, but needed a pick six and a blocked kick to set up a short touchdown drive to do it. Overall, the Irish averaged less than five yards per play.
Notre Dame's offense continues to struggle under Drew Pyne, who completed nine of his 19 passes in the win at Syracuse and will be facing an elite unit in Clemson, who is 24th in the country in yards per play allowed and success rate. The Tigers are also 10th in the country in terms of yards per carry, allowing less than three per touch, meaning that Pyne is going to have to pass to keep his team in the game.
The last time we saw Clemson ahead of their BYE week, quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was benched in the second half against Syracuse for top recruit Cade Klubnik. With a bye week to prepare, I expect we see the veteran back under center, but his job may not be as difficult considering Notre Dame is outside the top 100 in stopping the run (defensive rush success rate).
Clemson was plagued by turnovers, including three inside Syracuse territory, but the Tigers were able to move the ball at will against the Orange. Without flukey turnovers, that score isn't as close, and I think we see another double digit win for Clemson as they march towards the College Football Playoff. -- Reed Wallach
Pick: Clemson -3.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.