College Football Fraud Power Rankings Week 10 (Washington Debuts as No. 1 Team)

The college football season is entering the final stages of the regular season and some teams are getting wins but not impressing along the way. Eventually, these fraudulent teams will be exposed and have their dreams crushed with an "upset" along the way.

I'm going to take a page out of NFL betting expert Iain MacMillian's ranking of fraudulent NFL teams and do it for college football. These are five teams that are being overrated in the public eye due to their reputation and strong record, but really these teams are nowhere near the perception we have of them.

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Most Overrated Teams in College Football

5) Oklahoma

Oklahoma gets off easy this week after losing at Kansas, exposing the team and knocking them out of the College Football Playoff discussion.

After skating by in a close effort against UCF, the Sooners were defeated at Kansas. However, there may be more to come as the Sooners are third in turnover margin this season but had three TOs in the loss. If turnover regression hits the Sooners, the team isn't explosive enough to play from down big.

The team is outside the top 100 in explosive rush rate and has allowed 68 tackles for loss, bottom 10 in the country.

This team benefitted from a handful of favorable bounces against Texas in the Red River Shootout to push ahead of the Longhorns in the national discussion, but the Sooners are still a step behind the Longhorns and are closer to a top 15 team in the country than a top four one, as we saw on Saturday.

4) Tulane

Tulane had a dream season in 2022, winning the AAC and knocking off USC in the Cotton Bowl in the final seconds, and the team hasn't missed a beat in 2023, jumping out to a 7-1 record. However, I don't believe the team is as good as its record states.

The Green Wave has covered one in its last five games that was determined by an interception off of a Memphis receiver's hands. Tulane has been favored by double digits consistently and failed to cash for bettors. The big concern for me is that this team is inefficient at running the ball (113th in EPA/Play) and defending the pass (116th in EPA/Pass).

The Green Wave gets bottom feeders East Carolina and Tulsa, but then two above-average clubs in the conference Florida Atlantic and UTSA in what could be the spot to fade the Green Wave.

3) LSU

LSU continues to pick up steam as a fringe CFP contender or SEC champion despite having one of the worst defenses in the country.

Sure, Jayden Daniels is playing at an insane level, compiling more than 3,000 yards total with 30 touchdowns and three interceptions, but the defense is far too vulnerable to trust to make a run to the postseason given some of the stout defenses in the Bayou Bengals way like Alabama on Saturday and potentially Georgia in an SEC title game.

LSU's defense is outside the top 100 in yards per play allowed and explosive play rate.

This team is exactly the type of fraud we are looking for.

2) Penn State

Penn State had momentum heading into the Ohio State game two weeks ago, but the offense sputtered as Drew Allar looked overwhelmed on the road, completing 42% of his passes while netting a total of -23 yards on the ground.

In a bounce-back situation at home against a lowly Indiana team, Penn State did anything but. The team needed a late touchdown to pull away from IU, 33-24. The team continues to not hit any explosive plays, outside the top 100 overall.

While the Nittany Lions' defense is stout, the team has benefitted from a soft schedule as Allar and the two-headed monster of running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are not generating enough big plays to compete with the likes of Ohio State and Michigan.

The Wolverines come to Happy Valley in two weeks, bet against this fraud accordingly.

1) Washington

The Huskies are playing on borrowed time.

After a fairly fortunate outcome against Oregon, winning by three at home, the team has struggled to knock off two of the worst teams in the PAC-12 Arizona State and Stanford. Arizona State abandoned kicking the ball after missing the first two of the game, electing to go for it in the fourth quarter with the lead but threw a pick-six that was all Washington needed to win 15-7.

Then, Stanford dropped what could've set up a game-winning scoring drive on fourth down last week as the Huskies escaped once again.

Washington is the front runner in the PAC-12 after the aforementioned Oregon win, but Michael Penix Jr.'s numbers are starting to dip from an efficient perspective, completing less than 65% of his passes over the last three weeks with four interceptions. Despite being the Heisman Trophy favorite, I disagree completely as the Huskies are due for a loss in the coming weeks.

While the team may escape yet again against another poor defense on the road against USC, the team still has games against Utah, at Oregon State and rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. If the team continues its poor play like the last two weeks, the team won't sniff the College Football Playoff and Penix won't be a Heisman Trophy finalist.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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