College Football Fraud Power Rankings Week 11 (Louisville is Far Worse than Record Indicates)
By Reed Wallach
It's only been a few weeks, but this has been a fairly liberating piece for a college football writer.
The fraud rankings are a nice barometer to see which teams are overrated and vulnerable to lose after a string of misleading results. Last week, Penn State rose to No. 2 in our rankings and the team failed to cover against Michigan.
This week, we have some reshuffling inside our top five, but the same team will hold the top spot: Ohio State up until it loses its No. 1 ranking in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Here are my top five teams that are frauds in my eyes and far worse than its record and public perception indicate.
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Most Overrated Teams in College Football
5) Washington
Washington was able to hold off Utah at home last week, but the team's defense continues to be a big concern as it gears up for a trip to Corvallis to face Oregon State, who is one of the best running teams in the country.
The Huskies allowed a Utah team that is outside the top 100 in success rate to out-gain them on a yards per play basis. The Utes gained nearly seven yards per play and were leading at halftime.
However, the Huskies ,as they have been doing plenty lately, pulled it out in the second half behind Michael Penix Jr.'s excellent play at quarterback. However, it won't be easy on Saturday as Oregon State poses a serious threat to Washington's undefeated season, top 10 in rushing success rate and EPA/Rush.
I have to keep Washington on the fraud list.
4) Tennessee
Tennessee was exposed as the fraud it is last week at Missouri, losing 36-7 as road a favorite. However, I'm keeping the Vols on the fraud list as the team hosts Georgia this weekend.
I'm sure much will be made about the team's up-tempo offense and ability to test the Bulldogs in a rocking Neyland Stadium, but this team continues to be an overrated group that is not in the same class as the Vols team from last season.
The Vols have a poor passing game behind an inefficient quarterback in Joe Milton. He is completing 37% of his passes that are traveling more than 10 yards in the air and that won't cut it against a Bulldogs offense that just got Brock Bowers back and is starting to resemble the National Championship level offense we have come to expect.
Tennessee was potent on offense last year, and was suffocated at Sanford Stadium, 27-13. Sure, the teams are different and the key layers may be in different places, but the drop-off on the Tennessee side is far greater.
3) Tulane
This Tulane team can't keep getting away with this. The team was tested by another poor AAC team as a big favorite, failing to cover for the fourth straight game, winning by single digits in all of those games.
The Green Wave are 9-1 on the year and undefeated in AAC play, but this team looks more like an average one that shouldn't be able to compete for a conference title game in a few weeks due to its middling offensive and defensive numbers. Tulane is 64th in EPA/Play this season and 62nd in EPA/Play on defense. It's not that Tulane is bad, it's that the team isn't very good.
The defending AAC champs are living on borrowed times in its pursuit of another title, and two tricky games against Florida Atlantic and UTSA on deck will lead to an eventual loss.
2) Louisville
Louisville has had an interesting season, a booming success for Jeff Brohm in his first year at his former school. However, the team has jumped out to a 9-1 record on the backs of an easy schedule. The Cardinals lone loss came in a listless effort at Pittsburgh, who has two wins on the year, and the team needed a fourth quarter rally to defeat three win Virginia last Thursday.
While the Cardinals are good with explosive play makers, the team is still not as good as its Top 10 standing. Sure, the team has an outside chance at the College Football Playoff, but I believe its more likely the team loses at Miami or home against Kentucky before an ACC title game against Florida State.
Quarterback Jack Plummer continues to skate by, but there's some looming regression is coming for him. He has 16 passing touchdowns to nine interceptions, but also has only 14 big-time throws to 12 turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
Based on an inflated record, Louisville seems ripe to drop one before the end of the year.
1) Ohio State
Ohio State took care of business against Michigan State, beating up on lowly Sparty to the tune of 38-3. However, I still don't buy this Buckeyes team long-term and will keep the team as the No. 1 fraud until the College Football Playoff selection committee takes them off the top ranking, which could come as soon as Tuesday.
The Buckeyes defense continues to be stout, but I still don't believe the team can line up and outduel Michigan in two weeks on the road.
While Kyle McCord put up a gaudy stat line last week, completing 24-of-31 passes for 335 yards, I don't buy this is part of the emerging Buckeyes offense. Against a sturdy defense like Penn State, McCord struggled a ton and I believe that's the ture capabilities of the signal caller, and for that reason, this team is still the biggest fraud.