College Football Fraud Rankings (Which Overrated Teams Get Exposed on Championship Saturday?)

BetSided's Reed Wallach shares his College Football fraud ranks ahead of championship week.

Nov 25, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) drops back to
Nov 25, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) drops back to / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
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The fraud rankings have been a good indicator of when to sell teams, as its time to remove our No. 1 team Ohio State from the top after the team was defeated by Michigan last weekend.

With only a handful of conference championship games this weekend, the group of frauds are tightening, but there are a few that we have to keep an eye on Saturday and discuss the team's prospects of lifting a trophy and beyond. I'm looking squarely at team's angling for a College Football Playoff berth like Alabama and Washington as well as some other lower level teams like Boise State.

Here's this week's fraud rankings:

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5) Florida State

It does feel a bit unfair to put the Seminoles in the fraud rankings, but it's slim pickings and there's a chance this team is in the College Football Playoff come Sunday afternoon.

The Noles lost star quarterback Jordan Travis to a serious leg injury and the drop-off was far bigger than I had feared to backup Tate Rodemaker. Florida State gained less than four yards per play and the backup completed less htan 50% of his passes for only 134 yards.

Running back Trey Benson saved the day at running back, taking 19 carries for 95 yards and three touchdowns, but it's clear that the team is far less equipped to compete with the elite teams without Travis.

However, the Seminoles may be able to keep their CFP hopes alive on Saturday as the team is set to face Louisville, a team that has been on this fraud list before and was exposed last week in a home loss against Kentucky.

Florida State is far worse without Travis, but we'll see if the team can get it done one last time as a small favorite in the ACC title game.

4) Tulane

Tulane has been on this list for a while, and I plan on keeping it here after a somewhat lucky win against UTSA to keep the team in the hunt for an AAC title win.

UTSA had five turnovers in the loss at Tulane, including a red zone fumble that would've made it a one score game in the second half. The Green Wave were outgained slightly in the 13 point home victory but were able to take advantage of the turnovers en route to a second straight conference title game.

Meanwhile, the team may get another lucky bounce in this one. The Green Wave is set to host SMU on Saturday, but the Mustangs may be without star quarterback Preston Stone, who was carted off the field last week against Navy.

3) Boise State

Boise State fired head coach Andy Avalos two weeks ago in the midst of a conference title push. Following two wins and a computer generated tiebreaker, the Broncos are now into the Mountain West Championship Game under interim head coach Spencer Danielson.

While it's a commendable job by Danielson to rally the team, who got its star rusher Ashton Jeanty back from injury, to get back to the conference title game, I'm not sold on this group laying points at UNLV on Saturday.

Boise State has had an up-and-down season, but has struggled against dynamic offenses all year long. The team has allowed 27 or more points to every top 50 offense in terms of EPA/Play it has faced this season outside of one (UCF, who gained over 400 total yards of offense). UNLV checks in top 30 in terms of EPA/Play.

The Broncos bounced back to beat a banged up Utah State team with a rush defense outside the top 100 in terms of EPA/Play and an Air Force team that stumbled to the finish, losing four straight games amidst injuries along the roster.

UNLV is a far bigger test, and on the road, and I believe Boise State is back to being overrated.

2) Washington

Washington was at the top of the fraud rankings a few weeks back, but earned my respect after out-dueling USC on the road, Utah and Oregon State on the road in successive weeks. However, the team seems to be running on fumes after escaping the Apple Cup with a victory.

Michael Penix Jr. continues to suffer from diminished accuracy and now running back Dillon Johnson is nursing a foot injury. While the defense has come on strong, this Huskies team is built around its offense and its ability to spread you out and put future NFL wide receivers in space. If the team isn't humming through the air, or even on the ground, the team is far from its best as the defensive line continues to be an eye sore, bottom five in terms of line yards.

Oddsmakers are with me, installing Oregon as nine-point favorites in the PAC-12 title game, a rematch from October's game in Seattle that Washington won by three, pushing the closing number of three. There has been a massive shift in market sentiment towards the Ducks, and rightfully so, as the team bolsters the Heisman Trophy favorite in Bo Nix and has looked more and more like a CFP contender while Washington has not.

1) Alabama

Maybe Alabama is peaking at the right time and the offense has clicked with a system around Jalen Milroe (which I clamored for for weeks early in the season). But I'm not sold.

It's not even reacting to the insane win for the Crimson Tide on fourth and goal from 31 yards out that won the Iron Bowl last week, this is about the prospects of an Alabama CFP run as the team is heading into the SEC Championship game against Georgia.

While an incredible win, I still can't get past the fact that Alabama is still going to run into a buzzsaw in Georgia, who bolsters a far more consistent and dynamic offenisve attack with the defense to back it up.

The Crimson Tide are outside the top 40 in success rate this season and is outside the top 100 in sacks allowed on the year. While Georgia's sack numbers aren't as gaudy as one would think, the team still 15th in Pro Football Focus' overall defense grade. Alabama remains reliant on the big play threat to offset its down-to-down mediocrity, but Georgia is top 15 in explosive pass rate allowed.

There is still a wide gap between these two teams, and I'm not sold on the Crimson Tide being looked at as a National Championship contender given I see them going down on Saturday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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