College Football Games to Bet Before the Line Moves for Week 8 (UAB, Boise State, Cal All Live Underdogs)
By Reed Wallach
The college football betting market opens on Sunday afternoon and matures through the week until kickoff on Saturday. For some betting early gives a nice leg up to bettors to beat the closing line.
That's the premise of The Early Reed, our Tuesday college football betting show that is 31-24-1 against the spread this season. Week 8 has plenty of early betting opportunities that are sure to move ahead of kickoff, especially when looking at some of the underdogs on the board.
Here are three underdogs that are smart bets to get in on ahead of the market and are live for uspets this weekend, make to check out The Early Reed for more bets on the Week 8 card:
UAB vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Best Bet
I'm still not sold on this Western Kentucky bunch, who is 4-3 on the season, but has beaten up on lesser competition while struggling vs. quality opponents. The team blew the doors off the likes of Austin Peay (an FCS team), Hawai'i (one of the worst FBS teams) FIU (arguably the worst FBS team) and won on the road against Middle Tennessee (a middling conference foe).
The team dropped an overtime game to Indiana, at home to Sun Belt contender Troy, and reigning CUSA champion UTSA.
Now, they get a UAB team that has lost two games by a combined 11 points and won three games against FBS foes by a combined 55 points. The Blazers should be able to hold the edge on the ground with one of the most lethal rushing attacks in the country, averaging nearly six yards per play (10th in the country) and also rank fourth in explosive rush rate. I grade UAB closer to the UTSA's of the conference than Middle Tennessee.
Meanwhile, UAB has faced pass-heavy offenses already this season such as Georgia Southern and Charlotte and contained them quite well. The team is 11th nationally in EPA/Pass and 42nd in success rate allowed. Western Kentucky throws the ball at the ninth highest rate in the country and can be in trouble against this stout UAB defense that is 13th in yards per play allowed.
I make the Blazers a small favorite in the game when you adjust for strength of schedule.
PICK: UAB +2.5
Boise State vs. Air Force Prediction and Best Bet
The market still hasn't caught up to the Broncos, who have been revived after a dismal start to the season. Hank Bachmeier hit the transfer portal, paving way for Taylen Green to take over under center, and the team fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough, bringing back former head coach Dirk Koetter.
The change has worked wonders for a Boise State offense that scored more than 20 points only once in their first four games to 35 and 40 since the change at QB and OC.
With a revitalized offense, the Broncos should be able to give proper help to an elite defense that is top five in success rate and allowing fewer than three yards per carry. The defense is coming off of a bye week where they had an extra week to prepare for the Air Force triple option and should be able to keep a lid on the Falcons offense that has been stifled this season against the likes of Wyoming or Utah State, who is nowhere near the level of this Broncos defensive front.
Meanwhile, the Air Force defense still has questions, they've generated only five sacks this season (128th in the country) and are outside the top 100 in success rate allowed.
This isn't the same team from early in the season and the Broncos are live to go to Colorado Springs and deal Air Force a third Mountain West loss.
PICK: Boise State +3.5
Washington vs. California Prediction and Pick
Last week I was happy to fade Cal on the road as a two touchdown favorite, citing that head coach Justin Wilcox struggles in the role as big favorite, he's much more successful as an underdog.
We cashed on the underdog in the Cal game last week, fading the Golden Bears, and now we get to back Cal as one at home against a Washington team that is 0-2 straight up as a favorite on the road this season.
Wilcox's Cal teams are 22-9-1 as an underdog against the spread and an insane 16-3 as an underdog of a touchdown or more.
Washington's secondary is very concerning, 110th in defending explosive passes and bottom half of the country in terms of turnovers generated. Cal plays at a bottom 40 tempo in the country and can bleed this clock out, making them an attractive underdog bet at over a touchdown.
Pick: Cal +7.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.