College Football Games to Bet Before the Lines Move: Trust Underdog Arkansas, Navy in Week 11

In a season full of them, college football had maybe its biggest twist in Week 10 as Alabama was ejected from the College Football Playoff race with a loss in Death Valley to LSU. Around the same time, Notre Dame was handing Clemson its first loss of the season as four-point underdogs.

The chaos of college football is at an all time high, but can we profit betting against some of the catalysts for the wild Week 10? Yes, yes we can. As we do every week, we are going to try and get ahead of the betting market with some wagers, as shared on The Early Reed on Tuesday afternoon.

You can watch the full episode below, but here's two bets that are showing value in the betting market around key numbers early in the week.

LSU vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

While many will want to jump on the LSU bandwagon following a thrilling win against Alabama in overtime, but those bettors are a week too late. This is an LSU team that closed as 13.5-point underdogs in that game, one-point favorites against Ole Miss and 2.5-point dogs to Florida on the road.

The team may have won those three games but this is far too much of an upgrade for the Bayou Bengals, who are still outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush this season and will be facing one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country in KJ Jefferson.

The Razorbacks run the ball at a top 10 rate in the country and can keep this game close with their ground attack. This is a poor matchup for LSU, who won its game of the year last season at home. Now, the Tigers go on the road for a noon start against an Arkansas team that just lost to Liberty as big favorites?

There are cheap threes in the market on the Hogs, and I think they are live to hand LSU a reality check on Saturday.

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame stunned Clemson in South Bend, 35-17, another ranked victory for the Irish, who have one of the most confusing resumes of any team in the country. However, there is a theme to Marcus Freeman's first season with Notre Dame: thrive as an underdog, falter as a favorite.

The Irish are 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season and are laying 17 on the road against Navy, who is as good as it gets as an underdog, 4-0 as a double-digit pooch this season.

The Fighting Irish are a bad bet as a favorite because they are poor at throwing the ball. Due to injuries at quarterback the team is onto backup Drew Pyne, who is 18-for-36 over his last two games that has a 76-38 combined scored in favor of the Irish. The team has feasted on turnovers and special teams to get ahead and then pound the rock and hold onto a win.

Navy has a top 20 rush defense in terms of success rate and will keep a lid on the ND offense that runs it at the 12th highest rate. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen's triple option is a tough prep for the Irish, who are coming off a crowning win against Clemson last week. I have no interest in laying this many points with Notre Dame against anyone, but especially with a noon kick against a service academy.

17's are disappearing, but I like this down to +14.5.

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.