College Football Power Rankings Based on National Championship Odds (Texas A&M, Notre Dame Fall Out of CFP Chase)

Sep 10, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Tyler Buchner (12)
Sep 10, 2022; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Tyler Buchner (12) / Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
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People thought that Saturday's college football slate was underwhelming, but boy were they wrong. Chaos ensued across the national landscape, shaking up the top 10 of the national rankings and opening up avenues for other teams to jump into the fray.

Alabama survived a scare at Texas, who lost their star quarterback Quinn Ewers for 4-6 weeks, but the real news came in the form of upsets. Notre Dame and Texas A&M lost as three score favorites at home to Sun Belt foes, effectively knocking both from the College Football Playoff picture.

We have a new No. 1, and a ton of shuffling inside the top 15 this week, so let's get to it:

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

1. Georgia (+180)

Georgia took care of FCS foe Samford, 33-0, but they still move into the No. 1 spot after Alabama fought past Texas.

The Bulldogs haven't allowed a touchdown through two games and now hit the road to face Spencer Rattler and the 1-1 South Carolina Gamecocks as 24.5-point road favorites.

Week 3 opponent: @ South Carolina (-24.5, 50.5)

2. Alabama (+180)

We won't drop the Crimson Tide too far down in the rankings, but this was a concerning effort for Nick Saban's group after closing as three touchdowns favorites in Austin.

The Tide couldn't get going on offense, mainly through the air, as the team picked up just 5.2 yards per drop back. However, Bryce Young manufactured two late scoring drives that got his team the victory.

There are still questions for this roster, but they survived the test.

Week 3 opponent: Louisiana-Monroe (-49, 60)


Listen back to the Week 2 edition of The Early Reed for more CFP talk!


3. Ohio State (+300)

Star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn't play this week as his still recovers from a hamstring injury, but that didn't stop the Buckeyes passing game.

CJ Stroud passed for 351 yards and four touchdowns in the 45-12 win over Arkansas State. Marvin Harrison Jr. pitched in with nine receptions for 184 yards and three touchdowns.

Week 3 opponent: Toledo (-31.5, 60.5)

4. Clemson (+1000)

Clemson was in cruise control against FCS foe Furman on Saturday, winning 35-12. I won't overreact to any box scores, but the Tigers were outgained in total yards, allowing 384 yards of total offense to their 376. However, this was mainly a scrimmage so there's no sweeping conclusion there.

Week 3 opponent: Louisiana Tech (-33.5, 54.5)

5. Michigan (+2000)

Head coach Jim Harbaugh announced that the team will be starting JJ McCarthy moving forward, beating out last year's starter Cade McNamara.

McCarthy completed 11-of-12 passes for 229 yards and three touchdowns in the team's 56-10 win over Hawai'i, securing the job in the process. Michigan faces Connecticut as a 47-point favorite next week at home ahead of conference play.

Week 3 opponent: Connecticut (-47, 59)

6. Oklahoma (+5000)

It was just 7-3 at half, but the Sooners rolled to a 33-3 victory over Kent State at home.

Dillon Gabriel completed 75% of his passes and the OU offense averaged 6.7 yards per play, but third down efficiency plagued them (completed three of 12 attempts).

The Sooners head to Lincoln to face Nebraska as double digit favorites next week as the Cornhuskers are coming off of firing Scott Frost.

Week 3 opponent: @ Nebraska (-13.5, 64.5)

7. USC (+1200)

Caleb Williams has made his early Heisman Trophy statement as the Trojans went on the road and dropped 41 points on Stanford.

The game was never in doubt for USC as Williams completed 20-of-27 passes for 341 and four touchdowns. They averaged eight yards per play with a handful of explosive plays, including this deep pass from Williams to Caleb Williams.

USC welcomes Mountain West favorite Fresno State on Saturday to the Rose Bowl as 13.5-point favorites with a sky high total of 71.

Week 3 opponent: Fresno State (-12.5, 70.5)

8. North Carolina State (+15000)

The Wolfpack won 55-3 against Charleston Southern in a predictably dominant outing. The offense got back together around Devin Leary, and now gets a 2-0 Texas Tech in Raleigh on Saturday in what should be one of the more exciting games of the Week 3 slate.

Week 3 opponent: Texas Tech (-10, 55.5)

9. Tennessee (+6000)

Hendon Hooker (5) of the Tennessee Volunteers prepares to throw downfield during the first half
Hendon Hooker (5) of the Tennessee Volunteers prepares to throw downfield during the first half / Michael Longo/For USA Today Network /

Hendon Hooker and the Vols knocked off No. 17 Pitt on the road in overtime on Saturday, 34-27. With losses to the likes of Texas A&M and Notre Dame, Josh Heupel's team now enters the conversation as a fringe CFP contender.

Sure, the team is going to be fighting uphill considering they are in Georgia's division, but the team has plenty of opportunities to prove their worth against elite competition.

Tennessee is home for Akron ahead of a big matchup against Florida in Week 4.

Week 3 opponent: Akron (-48, 65.5)

10. BYU (+13000)

BYU won a thrilling overtime game at home against Baylor, capping off the chaotic Saturday slate after 2 AM EST.

The Cougars won despite being down their top two receivers and two missed field goals to win the game, but survived their first test of the season.

It doesn't get easier for quarterback Jaren Hall and co. as they head to Eugene to face Oregon on Saturday.

Week 3 opponent: @ Oregon (+4, 56.5)

11. Utah (+15000)

The Utes took out their frustrations on Southern Utah coming off the road loss to Florida, winning 73-7 at home.

Utah now faces San Diego State at home, a team they lost to last season on the road, the game that now starter Cam Rising came in and took over the quarterback job for good in a losing effort. The Utes are very likely winners this season, favored by three touchdowns at home.

Week 3 opponent: San Diego State (-21, 49.5)

12. Miami (+10000)

The Hurricanes went through the motions at home ahead of a matchup in College Station against Texas A&M, winning 30-7 against Southern Mississippi.

Miami remains in the outskirts of the CFP race, but can make their case against the suddenly reeling Aggies on Saturday and get a signature victory.

Week 3 opponent: @ Texas A&M (+6, 48.5)

13. Texas A&M (+15000)

It's been mentioned throughout the piece, but the Aggies loss has shaken up the CFP race more than any other outcome so far this season.

Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State are likely the top three, but the fourth spot was open for a team like Texas A&M to join the CFP fray. However, that avenue is likely all but closed following the 17-14 home loss to Appalachian State.

The A&M defense that has so much talent on defense couldn't get off the field, App State ran 82 plays to 38 for the Aggies offense, and when they had it they averaged less than five yards per play.

Not to mention, Jimbo Fisher's offense scored only one touchdown, getting a kick return touchdown to get to 14 points. This was a dagger to any hopes of making the top four this season as the offense looked overwhelmed by a (very good) Sun Belt defense.

Week 3 opponent; Miami (-6, 48.5)

14. Oklahoma State (+10000)

Spencer Sanders kept it rolling against Arizona State, as the offense overwhelmed the Sun Devils in the 34-17 win.

Now, the team plays Arkansas-Pine Bluff ahead of Big 12 play, so the Cowboys remain firmly in the mix in a crowded Big 12.

Week 3 opponent: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (N/A, N/A)

15. Texas (+20000)

The injury to Ewers is a tough pill to swallow for the Longhorns, who was competitive with the No. 1 team in the country for 60 minutes in hopes of actually being "back."

Even with Hudson Card, the Longhorns had an opportunity to win in the final minutes, but stalled in the red zone four times, settling for four field goals (missing one of them).

Now, the team has zero margin for error without Ewers for several weeks.

Week 3 opponent: UTSA (-13.5, 59.5)

16. Mississippi State (+20000)

The Bulldogs won late night in Arizona, 39-17, taking care of business ahead of a road game at LSU.

Will Rogers has looked fantastic this season and dismantled the Wildcats on Saturday, completing 79% of his passes for four touchdowns and over 300 yards.

The market is very bullish on Mike Leach's group, installing them as road favorites against the Tigers in Death Valley.

Week 3 opponent: @ LSU (-2.5, 54)

17. Kentucky (+15000)

The Wildcats only won twice since 1979 in Gainesville, but now we can make that three after Will Levis outdueled Anthony Richardson on Saturday night. It wasn't the prettiest outing, both teams failed to reach 300 total yards, but Mark Stoops' team got the win as they await the return of star running back Chris Rodriguez from suspension.

Week 3 opponent: Youngstown State (N/A, N/A)

18. Arkansas (+8000)

The Razorbacks put up a wire to wire win over South Carolina, 44-30 at home, shutting down the Gamecocks offense on a down-to-down basis. South Carolina had less than two yards per carry while the Razorbacks ran for five touchdowns.

Week 3 opponent: Missouri State (N/A, N/A)

19. Kansas State (+10000)

There were some questions about Kansas State heading into the season with new quarterback Adrian Martinez at the helm, but they deserve mention in this week's edition as they handled Missouri 40-12 in Manhattan.

While Martinez didn't complete many passes, (9/20, 101 yards), the defense was nails against Missouri, generating four turnovers. The run game was also humming at over five yards per carry.

Week 3 opponent: Tulane (-16.5, 49)

20. Washington (+20000)

So far so good for Kalen DeBoer in Seattle as the team has put up 97 points in two games against inferior competition. How will it hold up at home against a Big Ten foe in Michigan State?

Washington starting quarterback Michael Penix did win in East Lansig in 2020 24-0 while with Indiana, but that's before the Spartans brought in Mel Tucker.

Week 3 opponent: Michigan State (-3, 55)

21. TCU (+25000)

Chandler Morris missed the team's win over Tarleton State, but Max Duggan took full advantage, completing 23 of 29 passes for 390 yards and five touchdowns. The Horned Frogs rolled to a 59-10 win as they head into a bye week before traveling to SMU to face new coach Sonny Dykes old team.

Week 3 opponent: BYE

22. Penn State (+10000)

Penn State had little issue dealing with Ohio in a tune up game for Auburn on Saturday, winning 46-10.

Week 3 opponent: Auburn (-3, 48.5)

23. Oregon (+30000)

The Ducks got back on track after being boat raced by Georgia, winning 70-14 at home against Eastern Washington. Now, their already faint CFP hopes are on the line against BYU at home.

Week 3 opponent: BYU (-4, 56.5)

24. Florida (+15000)

Florida keeps their ranking for this week, but their CFP hopes are likely dashed given their difficult SEC schedule that features at Tennessee and Georgia on a neutral field.

Anthony Richardson's Heisman Trophy campaign is already over after a dud in the loss to Kentucky, completing 40% of his passes for 143 yards and two interceptions.

Week 3 opponent: South Florida (-25.5, 59)

25. Air Force (+100000)

It's worth noting that Air Force will likely be favored in every game this season. Would an undefeated triple option team be a CFP candidate? I'd love to see this play out.

Week 3 opponent: @ Wyoming (+15.5, 49.5)