College Football Trends to Know For Week 2: How does Nick Saban Perform at Home?
All eyes will be on Alabama-Texas in Week 2, how does the head coach do as a home favorite? We have the numbers.
By Reed Wallach
The College Football season is on the move already this season as we turn the page to Week 2.
The marquee matchup that everyone is eyeing this weekend is Texas traveling to Alabama in a rematch from last season's thriller in Austin, Texas that saw the Crimson Tide pull out a one point favorite. We have a full betting preview here, but how has history treated Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium as a home favorite?
What about two other trends that can get you ready for a profitable betting weekend? We're talking about fading service academies as big favorites and one of the best underdog coaches in the country.
Trust Nick Saban at Home, but Oddsmakers Know This
Saban is the leader of arguably the most storied program in the sport's history. The Crimson Tide have won six National Championships since he took over in 2007 and the team is routinely priced as a big favorite. 2007 was the last time that Saban was a home underdog as well.
The team has been a home favorite in 105 consecutive games and have won 99 of those contests, an incredible run. However, just blindly betting the Tide to cover the spread in those games hasn't panned out. Alabama is only 56-48-1 against the spread (ATS) in that run.
Alabama is a seven point favorite against Texas on Saturday in Week 2. You can check out our full betting preview here.
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Fade Service Academies as Big Favorites
I'd say that there needs to be context to every bet, so let me explain why fading service academies is one of the best bets you can make in college football.
Air Force, Army and Navy all run triple options (even though the latter two are starting to transition out of it), so nearly all of its plays are on the ground and the clock is running often. That makes it tough to pull away from an opponent in win by multiple possessions given the limited amount of plays.
Since 2005, service academies are 66-84-2 ATS as double digit favorites, about 44%. With the new clock rules this likely hurts these team's ability to win with the necessary margin as well.
For what it's worth, Army lost to Louisiana-Monroe as a 10-point favorite last week. We get another chance to ride this trend with Sam Houston State catching 13-points against Air Force in a pseudo-neutral site game at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The stadium is about 90 minutes away from Sam Houston State's campus.
While the Berkats didn't score on the road at BYU last week, the team was stout on defense, limiting BYU to less than four yards per play. With a moving clock, SHSU may be in line to get another double digit cover.
Bet Justin Wilcox as an Underdog
Wilcox has been the Cal head coach since 2017 and while he may not have the best record in Berkley, only 31-36, he has been as reliable as any coach in the country as an underdog. Wilcox is 24-12-1 as an underdog, covering more than 64% of the time he's catching points. At home, that number stands at 10-4-1.
A revamped Cal offense that scored 58 points in its opener against North Texas plays host to Auburn on Saturday night with the Bears sitting as six-and-a-half point underdogs. The Tigers have a first year head coach in Hugh Freeze and will make the cross country flight to Berkley, trying to do what few teams have done before, stop Wilcox's Cal team from covering as a home underdog.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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