College Football Trends Week 12: Trust Jonathan Smith, Oregon State at Home vs. Washington?

Breaking down key trends for Week 12 of the college football season.

October 7, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith (right)
October 7, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; Oregon State Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith (right) / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The stakes get higher as Week 12 is upon us with several College Football Playoff contenders hitting the road to face worthy opponents.

Washington and Texas are fighting for CFP positioning and need to win out to make the final four, but face two teams that have been dominant at home against the spread, how will that factor into Saturday's handicapping? Both Oregon State under head coach Jonathan Smith and Iowa State under coach Matt Campbell are two of the best home coaches in sports betting.

Further, we will investigate how Big Ten team's are doing as underdogs this season when we look past the (far and away) best teams in the conference in Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.

If you want to use any of these betting trends to wager on Saturday, make sure to sign up for Caesars Sportsbook, who is matching all new users first bet up to $1,000!

Jonathan Smith's Oregon State Teams are Incredible at Home

Smith has done an incredible job rebuilding Oregon State's program into the No. 11 team in the latest College Football Playoffs rankings. What was an afterthought in the PAC-12 for years is now firmly in the mix for a conference title game and a New Year's Six Bowl Game.

Part of the reason Oregon State has emerged as a 10-win threat is how good the team plays at home. Since Smith has taken over in 2017, the team is 22-12 straight up in Corvallis, Oregon at Resler Stadium and is 21-11-2 against the spread (ATS). Further, the team is a staggering 14-2 ATS as a home favorite.

The Beavers are a 2.5-point home favorite on Saturday as the team hosts undefeated Washington, who is one of the worst run defenses in the country, which will play a pivotal role against Smith's run-heavy offense.

Will Smith's Beavers' win and cover as home chalk again? Find out more in our betting deep dive.

Trust Matt Campbell and Iowa State at Home as an Underdog?

Iowa State hosts Texas in a game that will help sort out the Big 12 title picture with both teams firmly in the picture. While many will gravitate towards the Longhorns as 7.5-point road favorites, be wary of that, as Iowa State has been a tough home out under Campbell, who arrived in Ames, Iowa, in 2016.

Campbell's Cyclones are 10-5-3 ATS as a home underdog in that time, and that number improves to 9-4-1 when catching more than a field goal. Lastly, the team is 4-1 ATS when catching more than a touchdown at home with Campbell as head coach.

Why is that? The team typically plays at a prodding pace on offense (the team is 120th in plays per minute this season), and does an incredible of limiting explosive plays, 36th in explosive rush rate and 27th in success rate.

Campbell's 3-3-5 is a tough test for any offense, even one of the best in the country in Texas, and another home underdog cover may be in store on Saturday night in Ames.

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