College Football Upset Picks for Week 10: Trust Baylor, Iowa as Road Underdogs

It's November and we have a loaded Week 10 college football slate, so who wants some live underdogs?

There are massive games across the country, but the BetSided team went a little bit further down the board to look for some underdog picks for this week, keying in on Big 12 and Big Ten action.

Keep reading for our breakdown of Baylor vs. Oklahoma and Iowa vs. Purdue and why the road team may be undervalued to win the game outright:

Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

The Hawkeyes face a Purdue team that throws the ball at a top 10 rate in the country, but Iowa has the defense to combat that top 20 in success rate against passes.

While the Hawkeyes offense leaves a ton to be desired, Spencer Petras is one of the worst Power 5 quarterbacks in the country, the Purdue offense has allowed 26 or more points in six of seven games against FBS opponents.

Can this game, that has a total less than 40 as of this writing, be settled within key numbers of three and four given the stout Iowa defense that has a significant edge in special teams rating? Absolutely. Iowa is fourth in SP+ special teams rating while Purdue is 118th.

The Boilermakers have injuries on the defensive side of the ball and are reliant on the pass. With projected inclement weather in West Lafayette on Saturday afternoon, this game can be messy, giving more value to the low totaled underdog. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: Iowa ML (+150)

Baylor vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma’s defense was supposed to be fixed when Alex Grinch came onto Lincoln Riley’s staff, it wasn’t fixed. Now that Riley and Grinch are gone, Brent Venables was supposed to fix the defense.

Surprise, it’s still not fixed.

The Sooners are 113th in total defense, 114th against the run, and 90th against the pass. Last week, they looked better against Iowa State’s offense that is 107th in scoring, when they allowed just 13 points. That was the first game that Oklahoma has allowed less than 40 points since they played Kent State back on September 10th. 

Baylor’s defense is by no means great, but they are serviceable and that gives them a distinct advantage in this game. Blake Shapen has missed some time this season, but when he’s been on the field he’s been very solid for Baylor. Shapen has 13 touchdowns to five interceptions and completes 67% of his passes. That is more than enough for a team that runs for 201.5 yards per game. 

Last week, Richard Reese had 36 carries for the Bears and finished the game with 148 yards and three touchdowns. He is a true workhorse and will have a massive day against one of the worst defenses in the entire country.  -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Baylor ML +140

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.