College Football Upset Picks for Week 13: Let Down for USC vs. Notre Dame?

Rivalry week is here and there's plenty to still sort out in terms of Conference Championships and the College Football Playoff.

Let's head out west for a pair of upset picks. The PAC-12 title game is half set for next week with USC clinching their spot last week with a thrilling win over UCLA, but they have their eyes on the CFP now and a top four spot. Will they be able to stay on track against Notre Dame?

What about the Civil War between Oregon and Oregon State in Corvallis? The Ducks are into the PAC-12 Championship game with a win agaisnt their in-state rival, but the Beavers have quietly put together an 8-3 season behind a strong running game. Will they keep it up on Saturday?

Here are two underdogs we are backing on Saturday:

Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

The Beavers are very reliant on their ground game since making the move to Ben Gulbranson, but it has worked thus far as the team has been able to win the battle up front for the last several weeks and keep this offense on point. For the season, the Beavers are top 30 in success rate, EPA/Play and points per opportunity this season.

The key to this Oregon State offense has been Damien Martinez, who has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last five games. Can he make it six in a row against their in-state rival?

The team is bottom half of the country in EPA/Rush, but the real issue is the team's inability to limit points in close. The team is bottom 40 nationally in yards per play and teams are scoring at a top 20 clip per drive this season.

So, can Oregon State slow down this Oregon offense? Bo Nix played despite rumors that he would sit and looked severely limited. The Ducks defense stepped up to cause turnovers but the team played their worst offensive performance since Week 1 against Georgia.

If Nix is still hampered by an injury that had his status in doubt, this is going to be another tough game on the road. The Beavers defense are top 30 nationally in EPA/Play on defense nad are particularly strong against the pass, top 30 in success rate. The defense is nails in close, allowing touchdowns on just 50% of opponent's drives inside the red zone. If the team is capable of holding the Ducks to three instead of six, the calculus changes in this game for a team that is bottom 10 in plays per minute and wants to run the rock.

I'll grab the points with the home underdog in a rivalry game. If Nix is still compromised and can't move around in the pocket, the Oregon State defense can get enough stops to play ball control and run their way to an upset bid in Week 13. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: Oregon State ML (+130)

Get all of Reed's college football plays HERE!

Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame’s resurgence has been centered around their running game this season. Their quarterback, Drew Pyne, has been good, but against Boston College last week, they throttled the Eagles on the ground with 281 rushing yards on their way to a 44-0 win. The Fighting Irish run for 191.2 yards per game, 36th best in the country, but over their past three games they have ran for over 200 yards. USC hasn’t been able to stop the run very much this year, they are 66th defensively against the run. 

USC does it a different way. Caleb Williams could be the new Heisman favorite after his performance in the Trojans 48-45 win over UCLA last week. Williams threw for 470 yards and two touchdowns. 

Notre Dame is 16th in passing defense, they have slowed teams down through the air and if they can do it this week, they will have a good chance to upset the Trojans on the road. I’ve had a running theory for years that the Pac 12 will eliminate itself from playoff contention every chance they get and a USC let-down after a battle with UCLA fits right in. I expect Notre Dame to run all over them, be the more physical team and find a way to slow down Caleb Williams just enough. 

Oh and I like the over too.  -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Notre Dame +180

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.