We have one more week to cash in on some live underdogs and get a bigger payout than your typical bet, so where should we go?
Motivations are in question for a handful of teams as we wrap up the 2023 regular season, will certain teams that are playing for bowl eligibility or looking to win on their home field for the final game of the regular season give a bigger effort? What about teams that have nothing to play for, but are being priced like it will show up? Is that giving us bettors some value?
Let's dive into three of our favorite underdogs in Week 13:
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College Football Upset Picks for Week 13
- TCU (+315) vs. Oklahoma
- Pitt (+195) vs. Duke
- North Carolina State (+120) vs. North Carolina
TCU vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Oklahoma is finishing the season in poor form, evident with the team's close call with BYU on the road as 25-point favorites. The team's defense remains incredibly turnover-reliant to offset an offense that still struggles to run the ball. The team needed a pick-six to get past the Cougars and lost the likes of Dillon Gabriel and No. 1 wide receiver Jalil Farooq in that game, but the hope is both play, but it's no sure thing.
In comes TCU to Norman, Oklahoma, who will look to pull an upset win and qualify for a bowl this season. The team has been sticking with backup Josh Hoover, who has showcased some big play ability, posting nine big-time throws on 240 pass attempts, per Pro Football Focus. While that has also led to plenty of turnover-worthy plays (11), Hoover and the TCU offense remain dynamic, 28th in EPA/Play.
Oklahoma looks far from the Big 12 championship contender it was thought to be early in the season, and TCU may hand them a well-deserved loss given its recent form. I think the Horned Frogs make this game difficult for the Sooners on Friday.
PICK: TCU +310
Pitt vs. Duke Prediction and Pick
While Duke's offense has had its shortcomings with Loftis under center, the team has posted an above-average success rate over the last two games when compared to all games in 2022, per gameonpaper.com. However, that came against two poor defenses in North Carolina and Virginia.
The Pitt defense is far better than the team's record, grading out as the 32nd best group in terms of success rate, allowing the 56th lowest yards per play mark with the 16th most tackles for loss.
While there's obvious concern that Duke is without its starting quarterback, the defense is the bigger concern, allowing over six yards per play over the last two games and having only five tackles for loss.
There are still issues with the Pitt offense, but Yarnell played as good as anyone else has at QB for the Panthers this season and the defense has remained stout. With little stakes in this one, Pitt may be live for a season finale upset.
PICK: Pitt +195
North Carolina State vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick
North Carolina State should be favored in this game. The team has won four straight as the team continues to get decent quarterback play from both M.J. Morris and from the once-benched Brennan Armstrong, but the defense continues to be outstanding.
The Wolfpack are 38th in the country in yards per play allowed and 10th in turnovers gained. The team faces a North Carolina team that is limping to the finish line after losing three of its last five games. The defense has been exposed as the poor unit we expected this season, allowing 30 or more in its last five ACC games, and the offense will struggle against an elite Wolfpack defense.
At Carter-Finley Stadium, an incredibly difficult place to play, I see the Wolfpack winning this one outright and finishing the season at 9-3.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!