College Football Upset Picks for Week 4 (Trust Arkansas in Dallas to Upset Texas A&M)

Sep 10, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) rushes
Sep 10, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) rushes / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday's are for upsets, and the BetSided team is keying in on a pair of nationally televised games that may produce some fireworks.

Arkansas and Texas A&M are set to do battle at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas while arguably the best offense in the country, USC, takes their talents to Corvallis to continue building their College Football Playoff résumé. Will all going according to plan, or are these teams on upset alert?

Check out our staff's favorite upset bets for Week 4 of the college football season.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Last year, the Razorbacks proved they were a legitimate team after beating the Texas A&M Aggies and history will repeat itself this season. Arkansas is the underdog in this game, and I love it for value purposes. I don’t see a way the Aggies win this game, so I’m going all in on the Razorbacks. 

Texas A&M has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies are 112th in points per game and 125th in yards per game. On top of that, they only convert on 30% of their third downs. They aren’t efficient or explosive and that’s going to be a problem against a good team like Arkansas. 

The Razorbacks average just over 37 points per game, rank 33rd in yards per game and convert on over half of their third downs. The difference between these two offenses is striking and it will be the deciding factor in this game.

Until Texas A&M can score some points, don’t trust them. -- Donnavan Smoot

USC vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

Both offense should dominate in this game as USC boasts arguably the most potent O in the country, but their defense is terrible at stopping the run. That can be problematic against a rush first Beavers offense.

The Trojans are bottom 40 in both yards allowed per carry and explosive rush defense, which will look to stay in front of a Beavers offense that is top 20 in explosive rush rate (and pass for that matter) and does a great job of winning in the trenches, allowing just two sacks through three games.

USC's offense will likely continue to find success against the Beavers mediocre defense that ranks 81st in defensive line yards and 91st in success rate.

However, I believe the Beavers can match the Trojans on offense and keep this to one score considering this team can't stay in front of everybody. I shared this sentiment on this week's Early Reed

Fresno State was covering until starting quarterback Jake Haener went down with an injury, and I believe Oregon State is live for an upset just like the Bulldogs were.