College Football Upset Picks for Week 5: Trust TCU, Wake Forest as Underdogs

TCU junior quarterback Max Duggan fires a pass in the third quarter against Iowa State on Friday,
TCU junior quarterback Max Duggan fires a pass in the third quarter against Iowa State on Friday, / Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY

Get ready: more upsets are coming to college football.

The 2022 college football season has been full of surprises week-to-week and with conference play getting into full swing, expect more of the same as teams need to adjust to better and more familiar competition after some focused on non conference play over the last several weeks.

Power ratings are still catching up to the 2022 data points and that can be creating value on a few underdogs on Saturday, here are two that we are eyeing.

Oklahoma vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

I'm interested in taking TCU as a home underdog, mainly because with a total this high, and a suspect Oklahoma defense, the ability to stay within one score will be there all game long.

Oklahoma's defensive line couldn't keep Kansas State off the field last week, the Wildcats averaged over five yards per carry, which can be an issue against an explosive TCU offense. The Horned Frogs haven't been challenged all that much, but the team is top 11 in both explosive rush and pass this season and will be facing a OU defense that is outside the top 100 in line yards and bottom half nationally in success rate.

Dillon Gabriel has been fantastic for the Sooner, especially when connecting with receiver Marvin Mims, completing 67% of his passes as the team is top 10 in points per drive.

Points are going to come in bunches as both teams have suspect defenses, but I'm going to trust Max Duggan and the TCU offense to keep this offense on track and within the number. Again, the backdoor can be wide open for this cover given the high total and the concerns of the OU defense.

The spot is somewhat ruined for TCU after the Sooners dropped their game to Kansas State last week, but it also showed us some of the flaws that the roster has. In a game with a total pushing 70, I expect the Horned Frogs to go toe-to-toe with OU and be live for the upset. -- Reed Wallach

PICK: TCU ML (+180)

Wake Forest vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Florida State has looked revitalized this season, knocking off the likes of LSU and at Louisville, but I believe the market is overreacting to their recent success. After opening at around a pick, the team has been steamed out to a touchdown favorite against a formidable Wake Forest team.

Wake's secondary could be vulnerable to explosive plays (outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense), but the defense line has held up nicely under first year defensive coordinator Brad Lambert, ranking top 20 in tackles for loss and 43rd in yards per play allowed.

The Demon Decans went toe-to-toe with Clemson last week, airing it out with Hartman and the team's mesh RPO scheme. AT Perry and Donovan Greene looked fantastic in the passing game and the FSU defense is beatable, ranking 96th in defensive success rate.

This is a swift over correction in market sentiment and at a touchdown or better I need to play the proven Wake offense to stay close to the Noles. If they are playing from behind, I still trust Hartman to keep the Demon Decans live for the cover.

PICK: Wake Forest ML (+205)