College Football Upset Picks for Week 7 (Can Tennessee Take Down Alabama?)

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) congratulates Tennessee wide receiver Bru McCoy (15) on his
Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) congratulates Tennessee wide receiver Bru McCoy (15) on his / Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY

Every Saturday feels big now that it's October, but nothing feels bigger than this one with three top 15 matchups between undefeated schools on the card.

Tennessee hosts Alabama in the biggest game of Week 7 as the Vols are a home underdog to the vaunted Crimson Tide. How do we handle the injury to Bryce Young? Can Tennessee spring the home upset and announce themselves as College Football Playoff contenders?

Here are three upset picks for Saturday's Week 7 slate:

Alabama vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

The status around Bryce Young is driving this line, but I believe that he will play. He was held out of last week's close call against Texas A&M in hopes of being healthy enough to go in this top 10 matchup, but even if he plays how effective will he be?

The Vols secondary is the weak point of this defense, 86th in success rate and 61st in EPA/Pass, but does the Crimson Tide have the vertical threats and a healthy enough Young to take advantage? The team has a fantastic run game, but Tennessee's defensive line has been incredible this season, top 10 in yards per carry and 17th in defensive line yards.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee offense grades out better than the Alabama one (with Young in) and has faced formidable defenses in the past and passed with flying colors, knocking off Pitt and LSU on the road.

Young may play, but I question his effectiveness and think Tennessee is live to spring the upset. -- Reed Wallach

Pick: Tennessee +7.5

Arkansas vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

I have not been able to quit Arkansas, I feel like I’ve been on the losing side of all three of their losses this year and I still had faith in them last week against Mississippi State, that was foolish of me. What I missed was how truly awful their secondary is. Arkansas is 127th in the country in passing yards allowed per game with 307.2 yards. 

BYU’s quarterback, Jaren Hall isn’t quite Will Rogers who threw for 395 and three touchdowns last week, but he is more than capable of taking advantage of the Razorbacks’ weakness. Hall played poorly against Notre Dame, but has thrown for 1,558 yards, 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions this year. 

Keanu HIll has stepped up around injuries to the receiving corps and has become Hall's big play threat. He should have a big game against Arkansas. Hill has 334 yards receiving on just 17 receptions this season, that’s good for nearly 20 yards a grab and he has four touchdowns on top of it. 

BYU’s defense is not great, they are 58th in the country in total defense, but that is miles ahead of Arkansas at 121, so I not only like the over in this game, but I love BYU on the moneyline. -- Josh Yourish

Pick: BYU +105

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

When handicapping any game with Mike Leach as the coach you have to look at the passing defense for the other team. It is quite literally step one and informs everything else about the game. For example, Kentucky is 20th in total defense and 16th in passing defense.

The Wildcats only allowed 174.2 yards through the air per game. Even in their loss to Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart only threw for 213 yards, the Rebels did most of their damage on the ground in that game. 

Kentucky was absolutely awful in Starkville last season and lost to Mississippi State, 31-17 when it came in ranked No. 12 in the country. Will Levis struggled, throwing three interceptions and only 150 yards.

Also in the game last year, Will Rogers threw for 344 yards, but that was on the 52nd best pass defense in the country. Kentucky’s secondary is greatly improved from a year ago, so I’ll lean on that defense coached by Mark Stoops and on Will Levis to get some revenge for last year. -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Kentucky +150