College Football Upset Picks for Week 8 (Back Ole Miss, UCLA, Oklahoma State in Marquee Matchups)

Oct 8, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) attempts a
Oct 8, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) attempts a / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Last week we had the most important upset of the college football season when Tennessee took down Alabama, could we have more dogs barking on Saturday?

There are a handful of important matchups as they relate to conference title pictures and the outskirts of the College Football Playoff conversation, could the underdogs reign supreme with everybody watching?

Here are three ranked teams that are live underdogs on Saturday in Week 8 action:

Oregon vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick

These are two very similar teams, each inside the top five in success rate on offense, but outside the top 90 on the defensive side of the ball. Both teams have been knocked for their strength of schedule, but the offenses should hold up nicely.

Oregon has scored 40+ points in every game this season outside of a 49-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. Many have given the Ducks a pass for that one, but since then they have carved up opposing defenses. However, they allowed 41 at home to Washington State and 27 to Stanford.

UCLA is a major jump in class with the way Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing. The Bruins have the No. 1 passing offense in terms of success rate this season and is top 10 in EPA/Play. DTR is a dynamic threat that may be putting it all together in his fifth season under center, he has combined for over 1,700 yards and 19 touchdowns through six games.

Duke transfer Jake Bobo has been a reliable target, hauling in 24 passes for 385 yards and five touchdowns while Michigan transfer running back Zach Charbonnet is averaging over seven yards per carry.

The Bruins outpaced quality PAC-12 foes like Washington and Utah at home, but will the offense travel to Eugene? It's to be determined.

Bo Nix deserves his shine after the drubbing against Georgia. As mentioned, he has this Ducks offense on point, averaging seven yards per play and scoring nearly four points per drive.

However, I'm going to side with Chip Kelly in his return to Autzen Stadium. The former Ducks head coach has been great as an underdog with the Bruins, 13-8-1 ATS since 2018, and with a total this high and a pair of offenses that are this explosive, I think this is a last team with the ball wins matchup.

Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

LSU opened as small home underdogs but the market has moved the Tigers to small home favorites against the undefeated Rebels. However, I'm playing against that as I'm still concerned about this LSU roster.

Yes, beating Florida on the road is impressive, but the Gators are a middling SEC team. The defense couldn't slow down Jayden Daniels, but the Rebels are one of the finest defensive units in the country. Yes, it helps that they have played a softer schedule, but Ole miss is top 20 nationally in yards per play allowed, points allowed per drive and tackles for loss.

LSU struggled to move the ball against the better defense they have faced this season, including Florida State, Mississippi State and Tennessee. All three of those teams are elite pass rushing units on defense and Ole Miss is more similar to those groups than the Florida.

Lane Kiffin had an elite offense last season with Matt Corral, but Jaxson Dart has fallen short of (unfair) expectations. However, Kiffin has worked around a more limited Dart as the team rushes at a top 15 rate in the country and is top 10 in success rate. The fine play of Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans has opened up the passing game for Dart, who is keeping the Rebels ahead of schedule with the 14th highest success rate in the country.

There are rightfully concerns about how real Ole Miss is at 7-0, but this line has shifted too far not to come back and play the Rebels, who are being penalized for beating the teams in front of them.

Keep in mind taking that taking +1.5 instead of an underdog moneyline gives you insurance if the hyper aggressive Kiffin decides to go for two late in the game and misses it.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

The betting market has moved with one way traffic towards Texas, who are sitting as 6.5-point road favorites against Oklahoma State. While this may be speculative, there were reports ahead of the TCU game that Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders was dealing with a shoulder injury, which led to TCU being bet. Something similar could be developing ahead of this week's game.

With that being said, this is far too much credit for the Longhorns. We saw the massive drop off from Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel to Davis Beville last week when the Sooners hung 50+ on Kansas. Texas' 49-0 win looks more like an outlier than a trend when you couple that with their near loss as 17-point home favorites to Iowa State last week.

Oklahoma State still boasts a strong defensive line that is fifth in the country in tackles for loss and 48th in success rate.

Ewers' injury has made Texas a tough team to peg. The Longhorns went toe-to-toe with Alabama even with the prized transfer being injured midgame, but also lost at Texas Tech with Hudson Card under center. As I alluded to earlier, in two games back, Ewers carved up Oklahoma and struggled against Iowa State, which is more indicative of the true level of Texas?

Texas hasn't done enough to justify being this kind of favorite despite some questions around Sanders' shoulder. This was a team that closed +5 at TCU last week and covered, this feels like a swift overreaction for a team that still has a Big 12 title appearance to play for. I'll take the Pokes and the points, this game should be closer to a PK than a touchdown.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.