College Football Upset Picks for Week 9 (Count on Pitt, Kentucky to Cash)

There aren't as many ranked on ranked matchups on the Week 9 college football slate this Saturday, which means that it's the perfect time for some chaos to take over.

Which underdogs can cash the spread and put a scare into some teams that have lofty expectations? We got three underdogs we are backing on Saturday, including Kentucky, who is facing Tennessee ahead of the Vols showdown against No. 1 Georgia next week. Can Will Levis spring a road upset? Check out our betting breakdowns below for everything you need to know for Saturday's slate:

Wake Forest vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Wake Forest is the No. 10 team in the country and just absolutely destroyed a Boston College team that Louisville lost to this year. Yet, the Demon Deacons are only four point favorites. Yes, it is on the road, but what is this line?

Sam Hartman threw five touchdowns last week, and has 21 TDs to just three picks this season. He has thrown for 1,755 yards in six games this year. Hartman is the best quarterback in the ACC and is leading the best or second best offense in the conference. They are right there with North Carolina.  

Wake Forest has a top 10 scoring offense in the country and is top 20 in passing yards per game. Louisville is 51st in passing yards allowed per game. Hartman should have his way with their defense. Even though it is nearly top 25 in points per game, in terms of total yards per game they are 49th in the country. 

Malik Cunningham has played fairly well this season. He is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but I don’t see him putting a ton of pressure on the Wake secondary. The real case for Louisville as a live dog is both team’s schedules. This is a huge game for Louisville at home and they have James Madison next week. Wake Forest sees Louisville as an inferior opponent that they have to get past before they play three straight games against ranked ACC opponents. NC State, UNC, and Syracuse right in a row for the Demon Deacons might have them looking ahead. 

I’m terrified by this game and this line, but I lean towards Louisville and the points. The underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings of these two teams. -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Louisville +4 (-110)

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

I think the bye week should do wonders for Levis and the Kentucky offense, which has battled injuries of late. Levis missed the South Carolina game (loss) and was hobbled throughout the win against Mississippi State at home. Now, the team gets him healthy and prepare to take on a vaunted Tennessee offense.

The Vols have a stingy rush defense, top 15 in success rate and EPA/Rush, but they can be had through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in passing game success rate. While the Wildcats don't have a dynamic player in the passing game to help Levis like Wan'Dale Robinson from last season, the offense has proven it can stretch the filed, ranking top 10 nationally in yards per pass attempt and explosive pass rate.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense could be up to the task of slowing down this Tennessee offense. Kentucky is fifth in overall success rate and 24th in completion percentage allowed. They are vulnerable to the big play (outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate) but this is a defensive line that should keep Tennessee behind schedule with a top 25 unit in line yards.

With Georgia on deck, I can see a potential look ahead spot for the Vols, who may let Kentucky hang around far longer than the team would like with such a big game next weekend. I like the Wildcats catching double digits. -- Reed Wallach

Pick: Kentucky +11.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

Drake Maye is incredible and I think he is the best quarterback in the division. Even better than Sam Hartman at Wake Forest. Maye is a redshirt freshman that completes 70% of his passes, has 24 passing touchdowns to three interceptions, has thrown for 2,283 yards, and leads the team in rushing yards with 378 and three touchdowns. UNC did not expect to lose Sam Howell and upgrade at the position, but they have upgraded massively. 

Maye has only thrown for under 300 yards in one game this season and that was a 294 yard performance in the first game of the season against Florida A&M. He will throw for 300 yards against Pitt’s secondary that is 43rd in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. North Carolina’s offense is No. 8 in yards per game and No. 9 in points per game. 

Yet, the trends tell us that this team comes out of the bye week flat. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. Pitt on the other hand is 6-0 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss. They bounce back well and with Israel Abanikanda, they can run the ball as well as almost anyone. He is fourth in the country with 959 rush yards and first with 13 touchdowns. The North Carolina defense is 111th against the run, so Abanikanda will have a field day. Pitt could win this one straight up, but I’ll take the points to be safe. -- Josh Yourish

Pick: Pitt +3.5 (-122)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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