College Football Upset Picks for Week 12: Can Drake Maye and North Carolina Win at Clemson?

It's Week 12 in college football and teams are starting to wrap up their seasons, some falling short of expectations, some making a late push for a conference title game and beyond.

Motivations are sure to be all over the place in the final weeks of the season and that can lead to some mispriced underdogs in the betting market. Can Drake Maye tie a bow on his college football career at Clemson with an upset win before heading for the NFL Draft? We break down the Tar Heels chances for an upset on the road on Saturday as well as two others in the Group of Five ranks this week.

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Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 12

• Florida Atlantic (+285) vs. Tulane
• North Carolina (+215) vs. Clemson
• UNLV (+135) vs. Air Force

Tulane vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction and Pick

I can't trust this Tulane team, which has been skating by against four of the worst teams in the conference in as many weeks, failing to cover each spread. While FAU has fallen short of its goals this season, the team has a sturdy defense that can keep a lid on this Tulane offense.

The Owls grade out as the 34th defense in the country according to Pro Football Focus. While the offense has struggled at times, the defense has kept the team competitive at times. Tulane's defense has question marks that haven't been exposed in terms of losses just yet, but the team has been overrated in the market all season long, evident in its poor ATS record.

Tulane is bottom 10 in EPA/Rush this season and will struggle to get margin yet again on the road against FAU. While the Owls have a pair of disheartening defeats, a shootout to UAB, and a 22-7 loss as favorites against ECU, the team was a small home underdog a month ago at home against UTSA, who I rate better than Tulane at the moment.

With a low total, I'll take the points with the home underdog to hand Tulane a much needed loss.

PICK: Florida Atlantic (+265)

North Carolina vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

These are two teams that have fallen short of ACC title expectations and will look to finish the season on a high note.

Maye will be the best player on the field at quarterback for North Carolina and may face a banged-up Clemson secondary that will be starting some inexperienced players in the back seven. While head coach Dabo Swinney said that the Tigers are expecting to get the likes of cornerback Sheridan Jones and safety Tyler Venables, the team is likely going to be without a pair of safeties in Jayln Phillips and Marcus Tate.

North Carolina's offensive line should be able to hold up against Clemson's formidable pass rush, the team is 10th in yards per play this season and Maye has been at the peak of his powers, completing more than 65% of his passes with an average depth of target of nine yards.

In a game that has low stakes, I'll take the better quarterback at a big number to feast on a banged-up secondary that has a lackluster offense supporting it. While Cade Klubnik played well last week against Georgia Tech, the Tigers remain 83rd in yards per play and bottom five in explosive pass rate.

PICK: North Carolina (+215)

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UNLV vs. Air Force Prediction and Pick

These are two teams heading in opposite directions.

UNLV has been on point in Mountain West play to date, it's only loss at Fresno State that included failing to score inside the five twice in the fourth quarter. The team has excelled under first-year head coach Barry Odom and a revived offense that is led by freshman sensation Jayden Maiava. The Rebels are top 20 in points per drive and success rate on the year and have a dangerous passing game as well with 1,000-yard receiver Ricky White.

The heads to Colorado Springs to face a slumping Air Force team that has lost two straight games and maybe onto its backup quarterback after starter Zac Larrier exited the game last week with a leg injury. The Falcons, who started 8-0 this season, are now on the brink of missing the conference title game.

The Rebels will present the best offense Air Force has seen this season, which gives me pause that the hosts can handle an explosive offense. Further, the visitors may be able to slow down the Falcons' triple option attack, even if the effective Larrier plays. UNLV's strength is on the defensive line, 53rd in line yards and 33rd in yards per carry. The team can win at the point of attack and limit chunk runs (22nd in explosive rush defense).

Further, the team has a nose for the ball, second in turnovers gained this season.

After a night game Saturday in Honolulu, Air Force is back home for an early kick against a team with a ton of momentum that played on Friday night and got an extra day to prepare for the triple option. Forget the points, UNLV wins this one outright.

PICK: UNLV +135

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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