College Football Upset Picks for Week 8: Can Minnesota Stun Iowa at Home?

Everybody is always looking for a big payout, everyone wants to embrace the chaos that is college football.

Look no further than our weekly upset picks article that will help you navigate the waters of the Week 8 college football slate. While there are a ton of big-spread matchups on the docket for some high-profile teams, certain teams are on upset alert.

Here are three that I'm eyeing to win outright as underdogs, including Minnesota, Mississippi State, and Florida Atlantic.

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College Football Upset Picks for Week 8

• Minnesota (+146) vs. Iowa
• Mississippi State (+190) vs. Arkansas
• Florida Atlantic (+132) vs. UTSA

Minnesota vs. Iowa Prediction and Pick

Iowa is in the driver's seat in the Big Ten West after winning at Wisconsin 15-6, but I believe we see the team come back to Earth and lose outright to a Minnesota team off of its BYE week. The Golden Gophers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is always a threat to throw the ball to the other team, but I believe he can play a clean game and lean on the team's top 40 rushing success rate to play the field position battle with a low total of 31.5.

Minnesota is the far fresher team off of its BYE week while Iowa is playing its eighth consecutive game.

Iowa has won its last two games scoring 20 and 15 points against Purdue and Wisconsin, who lost starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai during the game. The offense is a bottom-five unit by most key metrics including EPA/Play and success rate nationally.

I don't trust Iowa to string together any drives and will need to rely on turnovers and a big punt or kick return from Cooper DeJean to put the team in scoring position. Backup quarterback Deacon Hill is a non-factor in the passing game and the Hawkeyes are bottom five in rushing success rate.

The hope is that the Gophers are healthy out of the BYE with star freshman running back Darius Taylor able to play, but even without him, the variance in this game makes taking the underdog that much more valuable. Let's hope Kaliakmanis can avoid a dreaded pick-six and head coach P.J. Fleck can get his first win over Iowa.

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Similar to Iowa, Arkansas is playing its eighth straight game, and boy has it been a doozy for the Hogs. Arkansas has lost five straight, starting with a home loss to BYU by a touchdown before a tough slate at LSU (by three), Texas A&M on a neutral field (by 12), at Ole Miss (by seven), and at Alabama (by three). The team is now 2-5 on the year and getting to a bowl game seems like a chore.

The Hogs will continue to be without Rocket Sanders, the team's star running back as the offense has floundered in league play. Overall, Arkansas is 96th in success rate on the year and 71st in yards per play.

The team welcomes Mississippi State, who got to its much-needed BYE week after a slow start to the year, but I believe the market is way down on this team after not covering in five of six games. The team has had a sturdy run game this entire season, top 35 in EPA/Rush and while the passing defense has been an issue, Arkansas hasn't shown the ability to attack teams down the field, outside the top 100 in yards per pass attempt.

Arkansas is out of gas after a grueling stretch, capped by a close loss at Alabama, I think this number is big and the situational angles, mixed with some schematic advantages, make me bullish that Mississippi State can be live for an upset.

UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction and Pick

The boys from Boca are trending up and are live for an upset at home against its former Conference USA foe UTSA before both teams moved to the AAC.

Florida Atlantic pushed through a tough non-conference schedule that featured the class of the MAC in Ohio, Illinois, and Clemson and is now starting to realize its ceiling under new quarterback Daniel Richardson. Richardson stepped in for the injured Casey Thompson and the offense is thriving, fresh off a 56-point outburst on the road against South Florida.

UTSA's offense appears to be correct after an injury to veteran quarterback Frank Harris, but I'm still concerned. The team was outgained last week in the Roadrunners' 21-point win against UAB and the secondary is bottom five nationally in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus.

Meanwhile, FAU has survived its tough nonconference schedule and grades out as a national average unit in terms of EPA/Play and success rate on defense. Further, the team is 14th in tackling, according to PFF. The team is limiting chunk plays by wrapping up, the team is 21st in explosive rush defense.

UTSA, on the other hand, is 120th in tackling, telling when looking at the team's 124th explosive rush defense. The team's defensive line is aggressive, top 20 in sacks and tackles for loss on the year but FAU has been strong in pass protection, only allowing nine sacks this season.

I believe FAU is trending up and live for the upset at home against an overrated UTSA team.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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