College Football Upset Picks for Week 9: Fade USC, Tulane as Double Digit Favorites
By Reed Wallach
The college football season continues on as teams prepare for the final third of the season.
Trends have emerged over the course of the season for certain teams and it's time to register our opinions on whether those trends will continue or if we can cash out on a team that is skating by.
Given the variance in college football, there are typically large payouts on underdogs and the difference between two teams may not be as large as the market says leading up to the game. Take Cal, who is facing a spiraling USC team that may implode down the stretch of the season.
What about Tulane, who struggled to beat North Texas last week at home and now have a terrible matchup on the road against Rice? The same can be said for Fresno State, which has a lofty rating heading into a matchup against UNLV, but is it warranted?
Let's inspect three big favorites who may be vulnerable come Saturday in Week 9 action:
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College Football Upset Picks for Week 9
- Cal +315 vs. USC
- Rice +300 vs. Tulane
- UNLV +235 vs. Fresno State
USC vs. California Prediction and Pick
USC nearly erased a double-digit deficit to keep its PAC-12 title hopes alive against Utah but allowed a final-minute drive that set up a Utes field goal. Following the game, USC didn't make any of its players available post-game following a second straight loss.
The team now travels to Berkley to face a lowly Cal team that is fresh off of its bye and has looked renewed on offense with freshman Fernando Mendoza taking over under center. The team put up 40-plus points at home against Oregon State before running into Utah on the road. It's worth noting the dynamic freshman QB did get banged up against Utah ahead of the BYE week, he was replaced by former starter Ben Finley.
USC's season is over and it hasn't covered a PAC-12 game yet. The team has been rightfully downgraded, but I'm not sure we have found the bottom yet as a team full of future NFL players may begin to think about respective futures and let go of the rope on the remaining handful of games.
The Trojans are outside the top 100 in EPA/Play and tackling this season and have allowed 28 or more in five straight games, including three games of 40 or more.
While Cal is far from an elite PAC-12 club, the team rallied to lose 41-35 on the road last year against USC and is top 50 in explosive rush and pass defense this season, making it difficult for the Trojans to get easy scores.
Further, it's worth noting the Trojans grueling schedule, which included a cross-country trip to Notre Dame two weeks ago, an emotional and taxing game against Utah, and PAC-12 favorite Washington coming to Southern California next weekend. Cal may be frisky off the bye with an outside shot at bowl eligibility on the line.
PICK: Cal +315
Rice vs. Tulane Prediction and Pick
Tulane is the defending AAC champion and looks well on its way to another, but there are some concerns heading into the later stages of the season for the Green Wave.
The team didn't cover against UAB as massive home favorites and also needed a late turnover to hold off Memphis on the road as a small road chalk. Last week, Tulane was in another tight game against a North Texas team that has one of the worst defenses in the country, winning on a fourth-quarter touchdown drive, failing to cover a 20-point spread.
Now, the Green Wave is on the road to face Rice, who looked refreshed after limping into a BYE as J.T. Daniels was dealing with a nagging injury. The Owls were cooking on offense, but Daniels' injury hampered the team's upside, but looked the part last Thursday, blitzing Tulsa on the road to the tune of 42-10.
Tulane has a stout run defense, limiting opponents to below three yards per carry, a top-10 mark in the country. However, the team isn't as good at defending the pass, allowing opponents to complete 66% of its passes, a bottom 10 mark in the country, and is 114th in success rate allowed through the air.
This is a problem against Rice, who passes at a top 10 clip and is 12th in EPA/Pass. Daniels, when healthy, has looked like a high-level college quarterback, and I believe the offense has the edge against a shaky Tulane defense.
Meanwhile, Rice checks out nicely on defense, right around the national average in explosive play rate and success rate, but also is 35th in tackles for loss on the year.
Tulane is due to drop a game, and this matchup doesn't set up well for the defending champs.
PICK: Rice +300
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UNLV vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick
I'm not sold on this Fresno State team, one that has played an incredibly light schedule to date, to cover a spread over a touchdown. To be fair, UNLV has faced a limited schedule as well outside of Michigan (the best team in the country) and Vanderbilt (possibly the worst Power Five team in the country), however, the team has shown a ton of promise under the first-year head coach Odom and innovative Brennan Marion.
UNLV is 13th in explosive rush rate while averaging over six yards per play. The team's ability to run and make timely passes have made third downs manageable for the offense under a freshman quarterback. The Rebels are sixth nationally in third down conversion percentage at over 53%.
Fresno State hasn't been able to establish the run at all this season, the team is outside the top 100 in yards per carry and has allowed 20 sacks, 103rd in the country. While UNLV's defense is relatively raw, the team has been able to make plays in the backfield (36th in sacks) and has generated 15 turnovers, a top-10 mark in the country.
I'm not sold that Fresno State, who has struggled points against the likes of Arizona State (29) and Nevada (27) can win with a margin against an explosive UNLV offense. The Bulldogs are right around the national average in Pro Football Focus' rush defense-grade and bottom 15 in tackling grade.
Against a Rebels offense who has scored 40 or more in all but two games this season, I trust them to stay close and be live for an upset given that I'm skeptical the difference between the teams is this large.
PICK: UNLV +235
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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