College Football Wagering Trends to Know for Week 1: Target These Home Teams on Opening Weekend

We have finally arrived at our first college football slate of the season, so who are we betting?

We have a plethora of betting previews for you, as well as The Early Reed episode from this week for you to consume. Here, we give you historically profitable betting trends that have helped bettors cash over the past decade.

Here are four noteworthy trends for opening weekend of the season, along which teams fit into these parameters.

Week 1 Home Underdogs are Historically Profitable

Dating back to 2012, Week 1 home underdogs are 61-46-3, cashing at a profitable 57%. While most instances have the home teams as favorites or in neutral site marquee matchups, every so often, teams host a "better" team and are installed as underdogs.

Not a problem for that team, however, as they cash well more than the road favorite. In Week 1, it pays to play at home.

Teams that fit this historical trend: Purdue, Old Dominion, Colorado, Appalachian State, East Carolina, Wyoming, UTSA, Ohio, Florida, South Florida, Syracuse, Hawai'i

When Two Ranked Teams Meet, Trust the Favorite

Week 1 typically offers a handful of ranked matchups as headline games for the start of the new season. While it appears these two teams may be close due to where they're ranked in the AP Poll, the favorite in this game usually takes care of business.

In ranked-on-ranked matchups, the favorite is 18-9 since 2012. The spreads range from -1.5 to -19.5, highlighting cases where these ranked teams aren't so close in terms of quality. In the five instances that there was a double digit favorite in this situation (two of which are this weekend), those favorites were 4-1.

Teams that fit this historical trend: Georgia, Arkansas, Ohio State,

Stay Away from Ranked Teams on the Road

This is similar to our first trend, but we will key in on it even further, when an unranked team is hosting a ranked team, they are 22-12-2 against the spread over the last 10 years.

Typically the AP Poll is a projection of the season, but there is very little evidence behind the rankings of teams. Sure, Alabama and Ohio State are the two best teams, but why is Utah No. 7, for example? There is more guesswork the further you get from the top and that influences how lines are shaped.

Some of the most profitable wagers comes from fading trendy names that are ranked heading into the season.

Teams that fit this historical trend: East Carolina, UTSA, South Florida, Florida

Big Favorites Lead to Big Losses

Hat tip to John Ewing of BetMGM for finding this nugget on massive favorites.

This isn't calling for outright upsets or anything, but this shows that many bettors blindly trust these big favorites to win with margin, but there are plenty of factors that aren't explained in the spread. What if the team has a big game on deck and wants to pack it up after they go up four touchdowns? Do your homework before throwing some of these on your betting card.

Teams that fit this historical trend: Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Ball State, Rice, Colorado State, UTEP