College Football Week 1 Betting Trends: Can Brian Kelly Win A Close Game?

The official opening week of the college football season is upon us, and nobody wants to miss out on the action. Some will opt to use high level analysis on each team to wager, which you can find here with a plethora of game previews, others will use histrocial trends.

This article is for the latter, a few trends and situations that may glean a valuable bet. While all situations aren't created equal, some teams fit into certain buckets and spots that are either profitable or unprofitable for some, looking at you, LSU head coach Brian Kelly.

We'll discuss Kelly's recent woes in projected close games, as well as recent history on neutral site games and if we can take anything away from them? Lastly, we'll dive into the few teams that played in Week 0 and how they performed in Week 1 against teams that haven't played yet.

You can find against the spread picks for ALL Top 25 matchups right here!

Brian Kelly's Struggles in Close Games of Late

LSU will look to right its wrong from last season's opening game, losing 24-23 to Sunday's opponent Florida State on a blocked extra point, which was Kelly's first game as head coach for the team.

However, this has been a common theme for the former Cincinnati and Notre Dame head coach, losing hotly contested matchups. While his Tigers were an underdog in last season's matchup, the team enters as 2.5-point favorites in this one. However, Kelly's teams are 0-5 against the spread (ATS) when favored by three or fewer.

Neutral Site Games, Look Under?

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There's always a handful of games at neutral sites in Week 1 as teams look to up capacity. While some will have a nearby team take a short trip to play another marquee foe, these are foreign environments for both teams.

This season, there are four neural site games in Week 1:

Louisville vs. Georgia Tech (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
North Carolina vs. South Carolina (Bank of America Stadium)
Virginia vs. Tennessee (Nissan Stadium)
LSU vs. Florida State (Camping World Stadium)

Dating back to 2016, underdogs are 28-84 straight up, a predictable mark, but are 54-56-2 against the spread, per KillerSports.com. While that would be a losing endeavor, there's no serious edge blindly backing either side of these four. For what it's worth, the average point spread in this sample size is over 11 points.

However, unders have been the name of the game in neutral site matchups, going 48-39-3 with an average total of 54.5. If you assume a -110 vig on each bet, you'd come out +5.1 backing unders.

Teams That Play in Week 0 Struggle in Week 1

There were seven games on last Saturday's Week 0 slate, so us sports bettors got a chance to see some teams in action already, but could that be inflating those teams in the market?

Courtesy of Stuckey at The Action Network, teams that play an opponent that played in Week 0 are 56-33 (62.9%) since 2005.

Five teams fit that trend, Stanford (-3.5 at Hawaiii), SMU (-20 vs. Louisiana Tech), Auburn (-36 vs. UMass), Nevada (+38 at USC) and Oregon State (-16.5 at San Jose State).

While some may react to what they see on the screen in Week 0, the opponent gets a free week of game film and are more well rested as they prepare for the Week 1 game while the other team may be a step behind.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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