College Football Week 4 Bets to Make Before the Lines Move (Back Clemson Before Odds Start Soaring)
By Reed Wallach
There is value to betting college football early. Markets mature as the week goes on and we get closer to kickoff and hitting opening lines and capturing closing line value can be the difference between winning and losing sometimes.
Lucky for you we have a college football betting show that helps you find bets that are likely heading in one direction. While this won't always be the case, The Early Reed has helped bettors get in ahead of market moves and capture valuable numbers. This week we covered a handful of games but here are three that are set to move as the week progresses.
For more, you can check out the full episode above, but here are three bets to get in early on before key numbers disappear.
Michigan vs. Maryland Odds, Prediction and Pick
We both liked Michigan quite a bit in this spot. While the Wolverines haven't been challenged just yet against a cupcake schedule. This is a notoriously difficult spot for Locksley's Terps to handle. He has lost to top 10 foes by an average margin of 38.6 points in six tries, going 1-5 against the spread and 0-6 straight up.
Maryland has talent, especially quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, but he also is susceptible to bad decisions on the field. He completed nearly 70% of his passes last season, but also tossed 11 interceptions. This season, he has completed 77% of his passes with six TD passes, but also has two INTs to his name.
Michigan's defense may not be as great as the College Football Playoff team from last year, but they should roll at home. The offense is far more dynamic with J.J. McCarthy taking over as the full time starter.
SMU was on the field for 96 plays and outgained Maryland by nearly 100 yards. The Terps won by seven and were able to hit far more explosive plays, but this Michigan defense is going to limit that with four cornerbacks that have starting experience.
While Maryland will struggle against the step up in competition, the Michigan offense should hum against a dreary Terps D that struggled to get off the field against the Mustangs last week. I expect a strong outing from the Michigan rushing attack that has capable backs such as Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum, in addition to McCarthy.
It's not a perfect comparison, but Michigan closed as a 16-point road favorite and blasted Maryland 59-18. Knock the Wolverines a bit, sure, but upgrade Maryland enough to make this the almost same number and flip locations?
At -16.5 this is a play through the key number of 17.
Go Blue.
Clemson vs. Wake Forest Odds, Prediction and Pick
Clemson has been able to score much better so far this year. Last year their offense was a disaster, but they have scored 35, 41, and 48 points in their three games. The thing is all of those games have been cupcakes. Last year, Clemson was still able to put up 48 against Wake Forest in their 48-27 win.
I still have a lot of worries about the Clemson receiver room. They don’t have the dominant guys that they did with Trevor Lawrence or Deshaun Watson. Plus DJ Uiagalelei might not be the best quarterback on the team. Cade Klubnik is a five star freshman who should be their future at the position.
I could see a world where this game is close and Wake Forest hangs around especially at home with a veteran play-making quarterback. This is basically the recipe that Pitt had when they beat the Tigers last season. Only, Sam Hartman isn’t Kenny Pickett and Wake Forest doesn’t have the defensive line that Pitt did a year ago.
I agree with Yourish's sentiments about the Clemson defensive line, arguably the best in the country that should stifle the Wake Forest RPO-driven offense against a struggling offensive line.
The team is outside the top 100 in offensive line yards this season and is averaging 3.59 yards per carry. It's going to be on Hartman to throw his team into this game, but he won't have the time to throw. At below the key number of -7, I'm all over Clemson in a game I think closes over that.
PICK: Clemson -7
Duke vs. Kansas Odds, Prediction and Pick
Are Duke and Kansas football schools now? Both are undefeated through three games and have looked dynamite on offense. They are both top 10 in yards per play this season, which is setting up a super exciting game between two teams that aren't used to this kind of success.
KU comes in with more attention after upsetting West Virginia as double digit underdogs and Houston last week. Jalon Daniels has revitalized the Jayhawks offense, combining for 803 total yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Jayhawks go from the hunter to the hunted and I believe that this change in expectation is creating a valuable bet. Kansas hasn't been a favorite very much, the last time they won outright as a favorite against an FBS team was 2014.
The Jayhawks defense does leave some to be desired and can be exposed against Riley Leonard and the Blue Devils offense. The team is allowing nearly four points per drive and was outgained in both wins over WVU and Houston (although it was only eight total yards).
Going from an underdog of over a touchdown to being expected to win by more than one touchdown is a drastic shift and I'll bank on the Dukies to hang around and keep this close.
I make this Kansas -6, so getting more than +7 is critical.