College Football Week 7 Betting Preview: How to Bet Oregon vs. Washington, Auburn vs. LSU

The PAC-12 has been the best conference in college football this season.

While USC's Caleb Williams remains in the headlines for his individual excellence, the likes of Oregon and Washington are the ones in the midst of a College Football Playoff push and have a true case to make to the committee. Saturday presents an elimination game between the visiting Ducks and host Huskies as the two meet in Seattle.

Both Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix will make Heisman Trophy arguments on Saturday as two of the most potent offenses in the sport go head to head, but it's the defenses that will determine this one.

Meanwhile, speaking of defenses, LSU's D has been the butt of plenty of jokes this season as the team has struggled to stop any team with a pulse on offense, but will that change on Saturday when the team welcomes Auburn to Death Valley?

Here are two marquee matchups that I'm betting on Saturday:

Oregon vs. Washington Prediction and Pick

All eyes will be on Washington's passing attack, arguably the best in the nation. Penix Jr. is the Heisman Trophy betting favorite at the moment, averaging just under 400 passing yards per game and a dazzling 16 touchdowns with only two interceptions.

Just like last year, the Huskies beat teams through the air and by out-scoring opponents. However, this season the team has been lightly tested by a formidable defense. I believe Oregon is vastly improved on that side of the ball after losing last season at home to Washington 37-34 in a thriller.

The Ducks have faced the likes of Texas Tech on the road and done enough to stymie an elite offensive group. This season, the Ducks rank 14th in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade and 18th in tackling. In the second season under former Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, the unit has taken a step forward, top 10 in EPA/Pass so far this season, per gameonpaper.com. While the team was an elite coverage and tackling unit last season, there were way too many holes down the field, the unit was 109th in EPA/Pass and 122nd in passing success rate allowed. We are starting to see a group that looks more like the one we expected when Lanning had taken over.

Washington's offense will score, no doubt, but I don't believe its defense will shut down Oregon's to win with margin. This is a battle of the two best offenses in the nation in terms of success rate, Oregon first and Washington second, but it's the Huskies defense that is the anchor.

The Huskies are 112th in coverage grade this season and 98th in tackling. Oregon has been able to win both on the ground (first in yards per carry) and through the air (first and completion percentage) while bolstering one of the best offensive lines in college football (fourth in line yards).

I believe the diversity of the Oregon offense is going to give Washington more trouble than the pass-happy Huskies offense. I rate the Ducks slightly better than the Huskies, and while I give the Huskies a bump for being at home, I lean towards getting the field goal in a game that will likely come down to the wire, just like last year.

PICK: Oregon +3

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Auburn vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

88, 104, 65, 55, 69.

Those are the totals of LSU against FBS competition this season. The offense has been elite, but the defense has been arguably the biggest disappointment in college football this season.

With that being said, I like the under in this matchup come Saturday night.

Auburn will be the best defense that LSU has seen this season, rating 26th in EPA/Pass despite playing the likes of Georgia and Texas A&M. The Tigers' pass defense is particularly strong, allowing about six yards per pass attempt, which is 26th in the country. The defense does a good job of putting pressure on the quarterback and making it difficult for offenses to turn in scoring drives from in close. Auburn is 24th in the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, allowing a TD on just 46% of drives.

While LSU's offense can score on anybody, Jayden Daniels got banged up in the team's win last week against Missouri and may not be as big of a threat to use his legs as a weapon in the passing game. Daniels has rushed for 60 or more yards in four of six games, including 130 last week, but if he is limited that can keep back this potent LSU offense.

On the other side of the ball, we could see some improvement from the LSU defense. While the defense has been laughable thus far, the unit has been gashed by some of the best offenses in the country. Florida State, Ole Miss, and Missouri, each have elite passing games this season, all inside the top 15 in EPA/Pass, and Arkansas has a dynamic quarterback in KJ Jefferson.

Auburn doesn't have any of that. The team has scored 20 or less against three Power Five opponents and lacks any explosive offense, 109th in EPA/Play. On the road, I expect the Tigers to try and beat this LSU defense on the ground and play ball control. That is fine and could work, but with a total being lined in the 60s, there needs to be more explosiveness.

LSU has gone over in all five games this season, but I believe we see some regression in the scoring department now that the team is facing a successful defense that struggles to score on its own.

PICK: UNDER 63.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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