College Football Week 8 Betting Preview: Can You Trust Penn State or Ohio State's Offense?

Ohio State and Penn State meet on Saturday afternoon in a game with massive College Football Playoff implications.

The Buckeyes are not the team that we have become accustomed to, the team has been based around a stout defense and a more methodical offensive attack under quarterback Kyle McCord. However, the team has been tested far more than Penn State, traveling to South Bend and getting a win on the road against Notre Dame.

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are a bit of an unknown as we get ready for Saturday's matchup. The team hasn't faced a tried and true contender this season, but the team is flush with talent, including a pair of stud running backs and emerging talent in quarterback Drew Allar.

The Nittany Lions have been disposing of competition, but haven't needed to show much in order to get those wins. How will the team fare on the road against its first tough opponent?

Here's how I'm eyeing the marquee matchup of the Week 8 slate:

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Penn State vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread and Total

Penn State vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

When Ohio State Has the Ball

The Buckeyes are a far more subdued offense than the ones of recent years that had the likes of Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud under center. McCord has been very good, but not overly explosive as the quarterback of the team. He is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt and has 11 big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays.

Even with Marvin Harrison Jr., Cade Stover, and hopefully Emeka Egbuka (who missed last week's game) the Buckeyes haven't found its high-level ceiling on offense just yet. The team is struggling to run the ball at a high level, 100th in success rate on the ground, and had to go to third-string freshman Dallan Hayden last week against Purdue with TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams missing action.

Without a rock-solid run game, McCord has been forced to make plays at times and it has led to a ton of stalled drives. The Buckeyes are outside the top 100 in red zone touchdown percentage, finding the end zone on less than 60% of trips inside the opponent's 20.

The Nittany Lions' defense grades out as arguably the best defense in the country through the first half of the season. The team is top five in key metrics like yards per play, yards allowed per pass attempt, and success rate. The defense is aggressive, tops in havoc rate, and is seventh in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade, led by star corner Kalen King.

Of course, PSU hasn't played an opponent near the caliber of Ohio State just yet, so some of the team's numbers can be inflated. With that being said, the team is third in pass rush grade this season. The unit must get home against McCord in this one as we have seen him struggle a ton under pressure this season.

According to PFF, McCord is completing 70% of his passes for 1,533 yards with a 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season when he is kept clean, which has been on nearly 74% of his dropbacks.

However, when under pressure the other 26% of the time, it's ugly.

McCord is completing only 35% of his passes when under pressure and is averaging less than three yards per pass attempt. Penn State must generate pressure on the quarterback to get enough stops.

When Penn State Has the Ball

Allar has looked the part this season against a soft schedule, but how will it translate? He hasn't had to do much this season, averaging less than seven yards per pass attempt with three big-time throws to one turnover-worthy play. He has passed for more than 200 yards in three of six games and over 300 once.

The 6'5" signal-caller is hitting all the easy passes, completing more than 75% of his passes that are less than 10 yards, which makes up nearly three-quarters of his passes. However Ohio State's secondary is holding opponents to a top 30 completion percentage mark and is second in explosive pass defense.

Will Allar be able to keep the Nittany Lions on track offensively in a hostile road environment? The run game has been strong for PSU, but the underlying metrics show that there can be some concerning numbers, including the team's run block grade, which is 43rd in the country. Further, the team is outside the top 100 in explosive run rate.

There are still plenty of questions for the Penn State offense that will be answered on Saturday, but I think it's fair to have some worthy skepticism about the team's inability to push the ball down the field even against such inferior competition. So far this season, few teams have been better than the Buckeyes at limiting explosive plays.

Penn State vs. Ohio State Best Bet

Ohio State struggled in its lone test against an elite defense, scoring only 17 points at Notre Dame. While the team has shown flashes of an explosive passing game, I don't have faith in McCord to hit enough deep shots against a stout secondary, even with that much talent around him.

I believe in the Penn State defense quite a bit, especially with the mounting injuries on the Ohio State offense and McCord's little success at dealing with pressure well.

With that being said, I think Allar and the Nittany Lions offense may be in for a tough afternoon as well. Maybe the team has been playing coy with an easy schedule and has more to unleash with Allar, who has a ton of arm talent. However, I'm going to give the nod to the more proven defense that has been able to shut down opponents despite ranking outside the top 100 in tackles for loss generated this season.

Ohio State is allowing fewer than four yards per play despite having less than 30 tackles for loss on the year. The team has done an incredible job at limiting chunk plays and its ability to get stops will likely be the difference in what should be a physical and defensive-minded affair.

While this total continues to tick down, the under is the only way I can look to play this one. Both offenses have struggled to move the ball consistently and I believe each defense will be able to get enough timely stops to limit touchdowns as both quarterbacks continue to struggle to hit explosive plays downfield.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!