Betsided

Collin Morikawa is Best Bet to Win FedEx St. Jude Championship

Collin Morikawa is a perfect fit to succeed at TPC Southwind, the host of this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.

By Iain MacMillan

July 20, 2023; Hoylake, England, GBR; Collin Morikawa plays his shot from the fourth tee during the
July 20, 2023; Hoylake, England, GBR; Collin Morikawa plays his shot from the fourth tee during the / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
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The FedEx Cup Playoffs are set to begin this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Instead of sprinkling a little bit on a handful of golfers, there's one that sticks out more than the rest to me so I'm zeroing in on just one guy: Collin Morikawa.

First, let's take a look at the odds to win this week's event at TPC Southwind and then I'll breakdown why I think Morikawa is the best bet to place this week.

FedEx St. Jude Championship odds

Bet Collin Morikawa to Win FedEx St. Jude Championship

As always, when evaluating who to bet on to win a golf tournament the primary thing we have to look at is the course. In this case, we're looking at TPC Southwind, which has hosted some form of event every year since 1989.

The course doesn't have a lot of unique characteristics, as is the case with most TPC courses, but approach play is the number one most important factor, and driving accuracy is second. Meanwhile, the greens and greenside areas are amongst the easier on the Tour's schedule.

So, we want to key in on a golfer who is a fantastic ballstriker who will benefit from a course that won't challenge their short game. Collin Morikawa is immediately the name that should come to mind.

Also, according to DataGolf.com, the large majority of approach shots come from within 100-200 yards. That means very few pitches and very few long irons. Let's take a peak at where Morikawa ranks on Tour in all of those approach metrics:

  • Strokes gained: approach the green: 2nd
  • Approach proximity from 100-125 yards: 1st
  • Approach proximity from 125-150 yards: 8th
  • Approach proximity from 150-175 yards: 16th
  • Approach proximity from 175-200 yards: 8th

Not too shabby.

The issue Morikawa has had all season has been his short game. We all know that. But, TPC Southwind has been known to be forgiving for those golfers who struggle with a putter in their hand. If you need proof, look no further than last year's winner Will Zalatoris, who ranked 103rd in strokes gained: putting during the season but went on to capture his first PGA Tour victory at this event.

Where does Morikawa rank in that stat heading into this week? 106th.

Not to mention he has already had success at this track. He finished T5 at this event last year when Zalatoris went on to win it.

I'm calling my shot. Give me Morikawa to get back in the winner's circle this week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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