Colorado State vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Feb. 21 (Too Many Points)

Feb 17, 2024; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Colorado State Rams guard Isaiah Stevens (4) controls the
Feb 17, 2024; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Colorado State Rams guard Isaiah Stevens (4) controls the / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado State and New Mexico each are trending towards making an NCAA Tournament appearance with elite guard play, so how should we handle this matchup on Wednesday night between one another?

In a rematch from a Colorado State win at home, the Rams are at The Pit against New Mexico with the Lobos looking to erase a shocking two-game home losing streak. Will the Lobos be able to recover and score a convincing home win like oddsmakers are expecting?

Here are the odds and our best bet for Wednesday's Mountain West marquee matchup:

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Colorado State vs. New Mexico Odds, Spread and Total

New Mexico vs. Colorado State Betting Trends

  • New Mexico is 17-8 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Colorado State is 14-10 ATS this season
  • Colorado State is 1-3 ATS as an underdog
  • New Mexico has gone OVER in nine of the last 10 games

Colorado State vs. New Mexico How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, February 21st
  • Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
  • Venue: The Pit
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • Colorado State Record: 20-6
  • New Mexico Record: 20-6

Colorado State vs. New Mexico Key Players to Watch

Colorado State

Isaiah Stevens: One of the best floor generals in the country, Stevens will look to outduel House in the vaunted Pit on Wednesday night. Stevens is third in the country in assist rate (41.5%) and is shooting at a top 55 clip in the country (44%). Can he lead the Rams to a massive road win?

New Mexico

Jaelen House: House was limited in the first meeting between the two to just 19 minutes and will look to respond by leading the Lobos to a home win. House is a pest on defense who will look to rattle Stevens and jumpstart the frenetic New Mexico offense, can he find success without fouling?

Colorado State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

As is a custom this season, a high-level Mountain West home favorite is being steamed out past projection systems against another quality opponent. New Mexico is the latest team to have this type of situation develop, projected by KenPom to win by four points and by five according to Bart Torvik, but lined as a seven-point favorite on Wednesday night.

Colorado State won the first meeting, each team's Mountain West opener, 76-68 in Fort Collins, due in part to House being stuck in foul trouble. The Rams dominated inside (58% on two's) and Stevens had a big game with 18 points and eight assists.

While the venue change is notable, New Mexico is a strong home team, but the Lobos have dropped two straight home games, and I think the team is being overrated yet again on Wednesday night.

Colorado State does a great job of defending the interior. The Rams are the best two-point defense in Mountain West play and do an incredible job of stopping transition offense and shots at the rim. Colorado State is outside the top 300 in both at-rim field goal attempts and transition rate, per ShotQuality.

While New Mexico is an efficient offense, it's built around its ability to get to the cup, 35th in shots at the rim, so Colorado State may have the ability to match up and keep this close.

There is an artificial inflation on this point spread because home teams in the Mountain West tend to outperform expectations, but at a point, I need to playback on the average expectation. I'll take Colorado State to keep this within a handful of possessions.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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