Colorado State vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 8

The Colorado State Rams and Utah State Aggies go head to head in Mountain West action in Week 8. The Rams are 3-3 and undefeated in the conference while the Aggies record sits at 4-2 with a 2-1 record in the MWC.

The Aggies have won two of the last three games against the Rams but these games were each very close. The Rams outscored the Aggies by two points in those three games despite losing two of them. Colorado State has a slight edge on offense but I think its defense is being overlooked in this game. 

Let’s break down some matchup stats and odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to make a pick on this game. 

Colorado State vs. Utah State Odds, Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• Colorado State -1.5 (-110)

• Utah State +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Colorado State -130

• Utah State +110

Total:

• 56.5 (--110)

Colorado State vs. Utah State Trends

• Colorado State is on a four-game ATS win streak.  
• Colorado State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against Utah State.
• Utah State has covered two of its last eight games at home. 
• The OVER is 4-1 in Colorado State’s last four against the Mountain West Conference. 

Colorado State vs. Utah State and Pick

These two teams match up relatively well until you take a closer look a Colorado State’s defensive numbers and compare the two. The Rams rank in the top-10 in all of college football in opponents’ points per game, yards per game, points per play and third down conversions allowed. Compare that to Aggies' rankings for the same metrics, where they are between 56th and 113th, and it becomes clear there is a huge difference between these defenses. So why is the spread so small at 1.5? 

It’s hard to say really. The offensive numbers from the Aggies are a bit better, with the teams rank in the 65-75 range in terms of major offensive metrics. The Rams are right around the same in terms of offense with the same numbers falling in or around that same 65th to 75th place in the rankings. 

This again makes me question why the odds have these teams so close in terms of betting odds? In my opinion, the spread does not represent just how much better Colorado State’s defense is heading into this game. In the last two weeks, the Rams stuck close to a much better BYU team despite losing by double digits. They followed that up with a bounce-back win over the winless UNLV Rebels 28-24. 

I think the Rams have enough on the defensive end of the ball to keep the Aggies in check and cruise to a relatively easy cover in this game. 

Prediction: Colorado State -1.5 (-110)