Colorado vs. Marquette Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Second Round
By Reed Wallach
Marquette weathered an early storm from Western Kentucky in the first round to cruise past the Hilltoppers and set up a second-round matchup against Colorado.
The Golden Eagles’ star point guard Tyler Kolek looked healthy and ready for a deep NCAA Tournament run on Friday, but the team has a surging Colorado team in its way with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.
The Buffaloes won its First Four game, followed by a triple-digit output on offense to get past Florida, 102-100 in the final seconds thanks to star guard KJ Simpson.
With two potent offenses on the floor, how should we bet this game?
Here’s my best bet for Sunday’s Round of 32 matchup.
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Colorado vs. Marquette Odds, Spread and Total
Marquette vs. Colorado Betting Trends
- Marquette is 20-13-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Colorado is 15-17-2 ATS this season
- Colorado is 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season
- Colorado has gone OVER in 20 of 34 games this season
- Marquette has gone UNDER in 20 of 34 games this season
Colorado vs. Marquette How to Watch
- Date: Sunday, March 24th
- Game Time: 12:10 PM EST
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
- How to Watch (TV): CBS
- Colorado Record: 24-10
- Marquette Record: 25-9
Marquette vs. Colorado Key Players to Watch
Marquette
Tyler Kolek:Kolek returned from a six game absence to score 18 points with six rebounds and 11 assists as Marquette scored 87 points in the win against Western Kentucky. Most importantly, the 2023 Big East Player of the Year looked fully healthy, playing 38 minutes. How will he handle a step up in class against the length of Colorado?
Colorado
KJ Simpson: Simpson was clutch in the First Four win against Boise State, and was lights out against Florida, scoring 23 points with five rebounds and five assists while hitting the game winning jumper. SImpson did have three turnovers though, and must be mindful of the rock against Marquette, a team that is top 20 in the country in turnover percentage.
Marquette vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick
I see edges for both teams in this one.
Let’s start with when Colorado has the ball. The Buffs are an elite three-point shooting team despite taking shots from distance at a sub-300 rate this season. However, Colorado showcased its ability against Florida, making six of its 10 three’s. On the year, Colorado is sixth in three-point percentage this season.
Marquette’s compact defense yields a ton of perimeter shots, bottom 20 in the country, so the Buffs must take what the handsy defense of the Golden Eagles give them. Few teams are better at turning defense into offense like Marquette, who is top 20 in the nation in turnover rate while playing at one of the quickest tempos on offense in the country, top 10 in average offensive possession length, per KenPom.
With Kolek healthy, and capable shooters like Kam Jones and David Joplin flanking on the wing to be an outlet for big Oso Ighodaro in the pick-and-roll game, the Marquette offense should really hum and test the Colorado interior that is right at the national average in terms of two-point defense (162nd according to KenPom).
Colorado will have an edge on the glass, though. The team is an elite rebounding unit that is 11th in the country in rebounding percentage. With that in mind, Marquette has struggled on the glass all season and getting to the free throw line. The Golden Eagles are 286th in rebounding percentage and outside the top 300 in free throw rate.
I’m not in love with the idea of laying over a bucket, but do lean towards the Marquette side, but I think the pace should be fast and both offenses have paths to success, so I’ll side with the over.
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