Colts 2024 Win Total Prediction (Fade Indianapolis in Tough AFC South)

Under new head coach Shane Steichen, Indianapolis made significant strides in 2023. After winning just four games the previous year, the Colts secured nine victories last season.

This improvement came despite rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson starting only four games. Even without him, the Colts finished with the 10th-best offense in terms of points.

According to Sharp Football, the Colts enter 2024 with the seventh-most manageable schedule in the NFL. So far in camp, the coaching staff and media members surrounding the Colts have raved about the receiving corps led by Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and second-round draft pick Adonai Mitchell out of Texas.

Don't get me wrong, I like Anthony Richardson, even though his ability to stay healthy is a concern in 2024. Richardson was injured twice in his four starts last year, and his ten rushes in the other two games highlight the unsustainability of such a playing style over an entire season.

Now, Joe Flacco steps in as the backup. Despite a solid run with Cleveland, he's already 39 years old. If Richardson goes down again, Flacco will operate a completely different playbook than Richardson.

The AFC South is a Gauntlet

Last season, the AFC South was a three-team race right to the final week of the regular season. Only the Tennessee Titans, who finished 6-11, were mathematically eliminated before week 16. Somehow, this division could be even more competative in 2024. It may be the only division in the NFL in which all members realistically argue why they could win the division.

Of course, the Houston Texans come back as the favorite after winning the division in 2023. They currently sit at +105. The Jacksonville Jaguars, who finished 9-8 but still had a chance to win the division in the last week of the season in 2023, come in as the next favorite at +275.

The Colts are currently +310, and the Titans are at +1000 to win the South. While the Titans aren't exactly in the mix, they will be a tough out in 2024. There is no pushover in the AFC South in 2024, which resembles the AFC North of the past few seasons.

Breaking Down the Colts 2024 Schedule

The Indianapolis Colts will have a relatively light travel schedule this season, covering just 11,497 miles, the third shortest in the NFL.

Adding to their advantage, the Colts will face the league’s 10th-easiest slate of opponents, based on last season's records. Last year, the Colts had an even lighter travel load, covering only 7,833 miles, and left the Eastern Time Zone just twice.

This year, the Colts face a tough schedule regarding total rest between games. With a net rest edge of -17 days, they rank in the bottom three of the league. They will only have one game where they benefit from more rest than their opponent. In contrast, their opponents will have extra rest in five games, and there are no games where their opponents are on short rest.

The Colts kick off the 2024 season at Lucas Oil Stadium, where they’ll host the Houston Texans on Sept. 8. This Week 1 matchup is a heated rivalry and a rematch of the final game from the 2023 regular season, which determined the AFC South champion.

The Colts will meet the Texans again on Oct. 27. Their other divisional clashes include games against the Tennessee Titans on Oct. 13 and Dec. 22 and the Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct. 6 and Jan. 5.

The Colts Over/ Under Wins Future

The Colts' win total over/ under is currently 8.5. The Under is -125, while the over is close to even at -105. All odds are from DraftKings.

It won't be a popular opinion, but I see the 2024 Indianapolis Colts as a .500 team or worse. While the offense is young and exciting, the secondary is super questionable and inexperienced. I think the depth of their division will make winning more than eight games very difficult.

Getting off to a good start is vital for any NFL team, and it will be very difficult for the Colts in the early going. They open the season with two of the more promising teams of 2024, the Texans and Packers, before taking on the much-improved Chicago Bears.

If the Colts are going to win 9+ games in 2024, I'm struggling to identify where those wins are coming from.

The Play: Colts Under 8.5 Wins (-125)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.