Colts vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 11

The Indianapolis Colts held a 17-6 lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars at the end of the first quarter on Sunday but allowed the Jags to crawl back in. The Colts would hold off lowly Jacksonville, 23-17.

The win helped Indianapolis get back to .500, putting the Colts back in the mix for an AFC Wild Card spot. 

The Buffalo Bills beat up on their AFC East rival New York Jets in Week 10, winning 45-17. Josh Allen completed 21 of 28 passes for 366 yards and two touchdowns in the win, connecting with top receiver Stefon Diggs eight times for 162 yards and a touchdown.

The Bills still hold a half-game lead over the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

Here are the odds for this matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Colts vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Colts +7 (-110)
• Bills -7 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Colts +255
• Bills -310

Total:

• 50 (Over -110/Under -110)

Colts vs. Bills Betting Trends 

• Indianapolis is 6-4 against the spread this season.
• Buffalo is 5-3-1 against the spread this season.
• The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
• The Bills are 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 games in November.
• The Over is 4-0 in Indianapolis’ last four games following an ATS loss.

Colts vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

Buffalo’s defense may be the best in the NFL, at least on paper. The Bills are first in the NFL in total yards of offense allowed, second in passing yards allowed, third in rushing yards allowed, first in defensive takeaways and best in the NFL in points allowed per game, allowing just 15 points per contest. 

Buffalo’s offense is also second in the NFL in points scored on offense, averaging 31.1 points per game. So, the Bills are good at just about everything.

The issue with the Colts is they’re not bad at anything, they’re just not good at anything either. They sit near the middle of the pack in nearly every team statistic, and sometimes, the middle is not a bad place to be. 

The one edge that Indianapolis may have over Buffalo is running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor gives the Colts a superior running game, but then again, Taylor isn’t running against this Buffalo front seven every week.

I might wait for the spread to dip to -6.5 for Buffalo before I make a move on this spread. If it doesn’t, I might fade this game entirely. 

Pick: Buffalo -7