Colts vs. Texans Prediction: Indianapolis Set To Break Week 1 Curse

The Houston Texans look for their first win against the Indianapolis Colts since November of 2019 in Week 1 on Sunday. Houston was one of the worst teams in the league last season and got dominated by the Colts on two separate occasions.

Indianapolis upgraded to Matt Ryan at quarterback, setting the expectations for this season a little higher than last year's non-playoff year. Will the Colts be able to get a fifth straight win against the Texans with Ryan under the helm, or will the Texans pull off the first big upset of the year?

Colts vs. Texans Updated Spread, Odds and Over/Under

Colts vs. Texans Updated Odds, Spread and Total Movement in Week 1

The Texans were 8.5-underdogs at the start of the week and are now 7-point underdogs. 

Colts vs. Texans Updated Prediction and Pick

At the beginning of the week, Ben Heisler broke this game down and siding with the underdog.

Sharp points out above that from Week 5 on, the Colts win 64% of their games to just 40% in the first five weeks of the year. Houston, despite being one of the worst teams in the league still finished 4-2-0 ATS in division games, and 5-3-0 ATS as a home dog. ...I expect this line to move closer to 8 and maybe even 7.5 by kickoff.

Heisler correctly predicted this line movement, as the Texans are now 7.5-point underdogs. While they finished 4-2 ATS in divisional games last year, those two losses were against the Colts. Indianapolis outscored the Texans 62-3 last year. 

The Colts have no issue with the Texans and as long as Houston’s run defense provides minimal resistance, Jonathan Taylor will run all over them and lead Indy to a win. Now that the line has moved to a touchdown, I like the Colts even more.

PICK: Colts -7

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.