Colts vs. Texans Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 1 (Will Frank Rich Finally Get a Week 1 Win?)

In four years at the helm of the Indianapolis Colts, head coach Frank Reich has gone 37-28 with three winning seasons and two playoff appearances.

Now, he'll try to add a first to coaching resume in Week 1 when the Colts travel to Houston to face the Texans: a Week 1 win.

Reich's Colts teams are 0-4 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) over his career as head coach, but the Colts' Week 1 struggles go back the last 12 seasons; going just 1-11 both straight up and ATS.

Meanwhile, the Texans are projected for the lowest win total in the NFL this year under new head coach Lovie Smith. The 64-year old longtime coach of the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers is 89-87 lifetime as a head coach.

Armed with 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan now at the helm, can the new veteran signal-caller turn the Colts' Week 1 fortunes around as touchdown-plus road favorites?

Here are the latest odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Colts vs. Texans Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Colts -8.5 (-105)
• Texans +8.5 (-115)

Moneyline:

• Colts -405
• Texans +320

Total:

• 46.5 (OVER -118 | UNDER -104)

Colts vs. Texans Betting Trends

Colts:

• Colts are 0-4 both SU and ATS in Week 1 under Frank Reich
• Colts are 1-11 both SU and ATS in Week 1 in last 12 seasons
• Indy is 7-1 both SU and ATS in last eight games vs. Houston

Texans:

• UNDER is 5-0 in last 5 games vs. Indy
• Texans are 6-2 ATS in last 8 games vs. AFC South teams
• Texans 2-5 ATS in last seven September games

Colts vs. Texans Prediction and Pick

I expect Reich, Matt Ryan and the Colts to finally get off the schneid in Week 1 and get a win on the road vs. Houston, but 8.5 on the road is too much in a division game the first week of the season, especially given what we know about these Colts.

Ryan is certainly an upgrade from Wentz under center, and in the long term this season, expect Indianapolis to end up as clear AFC South division winners; which the oddsmakers at FanDuel project as -140 favorites.

Part of the issue for Indy's slow starts is the constant turnover at the most important position. It takes time to get an offense going with a new quarterback leading the way, and this is Reich's fifth quarterback in five years to start Week 1.

Sharp points out above that from Week 5 on, the Colts win 64% of their games to just 40% in the first five weeks of the year. Houston, despite being one of the worst teams in the league still finished 4-2-0 ATS in division games, and 5-3-0 ATS as a home dog.

I expect this line to move closer to 8 and maybe even 7.5 by kickoff.

PICK: Texans +8.5 (-115)

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