Commanders vs. Chiefs Prediction: Value on the Under With Totals Rising Across Preseason Slate
By Josh Yourish
Andy Reid is not afraid to play his starters in the preseason and gave Patrick Mahomes a decent look in the Kansas City Chiefs loss last week. The offense only managed seven more points after Mahomes left the field and now the Chiefs are a big favorite at home against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are also 0-1 in the preseason.
Washington will try to upset Kansas City this week and it may come down to which head coach wants to get the longest look at their first team.
Odds are available for this preseason Week 2 matchup at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- Commanders +5 (-110)
- Chiefs -5 (-110)
Moneyline:
- Commanders +170
- Chiefs -208
Total:
- 43.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Commanders vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total Movement in NFL Preseason Week 2
Kansas City is a bigger favorite after the line moved from Chiefs -4 to Chiefs -5. The total has also increased from 42.5 to 43.5 at WynnBET. Things are clearly moving towards KC perhaps with the expectation that Mahomes will make more than the seven throws he made a week ago.
Commanders vs. Chiefs Best Bet and Prediction
Ron Rivera is 21-19 in the preseason all-time but that does not account for Washington’s inability to cover the spread in the preseason. They have covered just one time in their last ten games.
What might work in the Commanders favor is not the starting quarterbacks, but the ones behind them. Sure, Carson Wentz would be hard pressed to keep up with a Patrick Mahomes led offense, but Taylor Heinicke has a lot of NFL starts under his belt and has shown an ability to move the ball. Not to mention, Sam Howell, the Commanders rookie QB, ran for two touchdowns a week ago.
Those two backups certainly outclass Chad Henne, Shane Buchele and Dustin Crum. Once the starters are off the field, the advantage seems to flip to Washington, but the real value might be on the total. The Chiefs put up two first half touchdowns a week ago, but didn’t score after that. Washington only scored 21 points and 15 of them came in the fourth quarter against fourth stringers from Carolina.
The totals have risen all over the preseason slate and I think the value has flipped to the under this week.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Follow all Josh’s bets HERE