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Conference USA Football Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Over/Unders and Dark Horses

By Reed Wallach

Dec 3, 2021; San Antonio, TX, USA; UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) throws a pass in
Dec 3, 2021; San Antonio, TX, USA; UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) throws a pass in / Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
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Conference USA brought us a ton of intrigue in 2021, but with several key players and coaches moving on, is there room for another team to rise to the top?

UTSA comes off their first ever Conference USA title, but now go from the hunter to the hunted without star running back Sincere McCormick. Meanwhile, the runner-up, Western Kentucky, moves on from the Bailey Zappe-led air raid offense and look to get back to their roots as a defensive-minded club.

Elsewhere, UAB's successful head coach Bill Clark retired due to chronic back issues this offseason, leaving a massive hole in the heart of one of the favorites.

Questions are all over the conference, is there any opening for someone to step in and make a run to the top?

Here is everything you need to know for Conference USA this season.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Conference USA Regular Season Win Totals for Every Team

  • Charlotte: 4.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
  • Florida Atlantic: 5.5 (Over -155/Under +130)
  • Florida International: 3 (Over -120/Under +100)
  • Louisiana Tech: 4.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
  • Middle Tennessee: 5.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
  • North Texas: 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120)
  • Rice: 3.5 (Over +110/Under -130)
  • UAB: 8.5 (Over +130/Under -150)
  • UTEP: 5.5 (Over -125/Under +105)
  • UTSA: 8.5 (Over +130/Under -150)
  • Western Kentucky: 8.5 (Over +120/Under -140)

Every Team’s Odds to Win Conference USA in 2022

  • UTSA: +210
  • UAB: +250
  • Western Kentucky: +400
  • Florida Atlantic: +850
  • North Texas: +1200
  • Middle Tennessee: +1400
  • UTEP: +2500
  • Charlotte: +2500
  • Louisiana Tech: +3000
  • Rice: +8000
  • FIU: +12000

Conference USA Championship Favorite: UTSA (+210)

The Roadrunners had a dream 2021 behind Sincere McCormick and an incredible offensive line. McCormick is now off to the NFL, but the team does have key four starters back on the line that helped pave the way for 1,479 from the CUSA Player of the Year. However, now it's on Frank Harris to take the next step as a passer.

He will be the most productive rush back from last season's title team, but they do bring in Trelon Smith from Arkansas to replace some of McCormick's production.

Harris completed nearly two-thirds of his passes and had a 27-6 touchdown to interception ratio, but what will happen without a proven product in McCormick alongside him?

The defense fell apart down the stretch, allowing 39 points per game in their last four and the team benefitted from a +13 turnover margin, the fourth highest in the country.

There are questions at the top but with Harris and the offensive line in the fold as well as five of the top seven tacklers back this team is a worthy favorite in a conference full of question marks heading into the season.

Conference USA Championship Dark Horse Pick: UTEP (+2500)

After year's in the gutter of the conference, UTEP made their first bowl game since 2014 after a 7-6 season. With a win total of 5.5, they are being undervalued this season as oddsmakers are counting on regression, but I see progression from Dana Dimel's bunch.

Gavin Hardison is back, a gun slinging quarterback that loves to push the ball down the field. It came back to bite him with an 18-13 TD-INT ratio, but after years of failing to move the ball at all we saw the pieces of a strong unit.

Ronald Awatt and Deion Hankins make a formidable duo in the backfield behind a strong offensive line that allowed only 19 sacks in 13 games. If Hardison and the Miners can avoid turnovers (-11 TO margin last season was the eighth worst in the country), this team is set up for success on that side of the ball.

The defense brings back four pass rushers that had double digit tackles for loss and are arguably the best line in the conference.

The schedule breaks their way as well, opening at home against North Texas and avoiding UAB and Western Kentucky before they close at UTSA, a potential hedge spot down the line.

With an elite defense and an offense that could benefit from better decision making, I think UTEP is a great long shot bet with three favorites that are more vulnerable than oddsmakers are lining them as.

Conference USA Championship Best Bet and Pick: UAB over UTEP

UAB hasn't received a ton of mention in this article, but I rate them as the best team in Conference USA this season. There is rightful concern over how the team will look without Clark at the helm, but the torch has been passed to his long-time offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent, who has spent five years with the program.

The Blazers have a favorable conference schedule, hosting UTSA and avoiding Western Kentucky and UTEP in the regular season. The Blazers have a capable quarterback who played most of last season in Dylan Hopkins, who passed for 2,274 yards and completed 66% of his passes. If it's not him, it's Baylor transfer Jacob Zeno who was a former top 30 QB recruit.

Also back is Dewayne McBride, who rushed for over 100 yards in five of his last seven games.

Both sides of the ball should be fine with Vincent and DC David Reeves (six years at UAB), so I'm not as concerned with the outlook of this season. The D has always been a calling card for Clark's Blazers teams, and eight starters are back including No. 1 tackler Noah Wilder who is a two-time All Conference USA player.

I have questions about UTSA"s ability to respond to their first ever conference title and the remade Hilltoppers who lose dynamic quarterback Bailey Zappe. I think UAB is the most likely champion, but don't be shocked when longshot UTEP makes it to the title game.

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