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Connecticut Sun vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction and Odds for WNBA Finals Game 1 (Back Sun Early, Get Vegas Live Late)

By Ben Heisler

The Las Vegas Aces are 6.5-point favorites at home in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals vs. the Connecticut Sun today.
The Las Vegas Aces are 6.5-point favorites at home in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals vs. the Connecticut Sun today. / WNBA Media
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The WNBA Finals are HERE!

The Las Vegas Aces, after going down in their semifinals matchup to the Seattle Storm came back with a vengeance, winning their next three games to defeat Seattle in 4.

Now, they return home to face a hot Connecticut Sun team that limited their semifinals opponent, the Chicago Sky to just 5 total points in the 4th quarter, stunning the Sky in the win-or-go-home amtchup in Game 5.

In case you missed it, I was joined by longtime WNBA scribe and women's basketball expert Howard Megdal to talk all things WNBA Finals, as well as several different betting angles to consider ahead of both Game 1, as well as the series.

Here are the latest odds for Game 1 this afternoon from Las Vegas.

Sun vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Sun +6.5 (-118)
  • Aces -6.5 (-104)

Moneyline:

  • Sun +210
  • Aces -265

Total:

  • 168.5 (OVER -114, UNDER -106)

Sun vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

I admitted in my conversation with Howard that I was wrong about the Sun; thinking they were bumslayers as they were dominant vs. mediocre to below-average teams all season, but struggled vs. top-level competition, including against the Aces going just 1-2 this year with a net rating of -4.4.

However, Vegas has really struggled to get going early at home. Their offensive rating drops all the way down to 103.6, while their defensive rating goes way up to 122.2 for a net rating in the first quarter of -18.6. As for Connecticut, they really stood out in the first quarter over their last several games after struggling during against Chicago all season long. While their offensive numbers haven't been great, they do have a very strong defensive rating of 96.2 on the road throughout the postseason.

Even though Vegas is well-rested, I trust Connecticut to deploy the same defensive tenacity that helped them advance to the WNBA Finals early. Eventually, I'll back the Aces live in the game at the right number, but early on, I like the Sun to start off strong.

PICK: SUN 1Q +1.5 -105 | LEAN: Aces -6

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

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