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Connecticut vs. Villanova Prediction and Odds for Big East Semifinals (Bet Wildcats to Advance to Finals)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 10, 2022; New York, NY, USA; Villanova Wildcats guard Collin Gillespie (2) makes a three point
Mar 10, 2022; New York, NY, USA; Villanova Wildcats guard Collin Gillespie (2) makes a three point / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
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Villanova needed all 40 minutes to hold off upstart St. John's in the Big East quarterfinals while UConn handled Seton Hall en route to the semis.

Now Villanova and UConn meet in the Big East semifinals with their season series tied at one a piece. However, no game is bigger than the one at Madison Square Garden that with the winner advancing to the finals on Sunday.

Here are the odds for the Big East showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Connecticut vs. Villanova Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Connecticut: +2.5 (-110)
  • Villanova: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Connecticut: +120
  • Villanova: -145

Total: 131.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Connecticut vs. Villanova Prediction and Pick

UConn may have won the second meeting between the two teams at the XL Center, but that was full of wild turns including some interesting officiating both ways. The Huskies did get the win, but I'm not confident they can do it again as the Wildcats have the shot making to separate from Danny Hurley's team.

Jay Wright's team is top 50 in the country in 3-point percentage and bolsters the best offense in Big East play. Led by point guard Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats protect the ball and are always finding clean shots, ranking top 10 in ShotQuality's adjusted offensive rating.

The key to this one will come on the defensive side of the ball where the Huskies will have to hit their 3's in order to win. Villanova is fantastic in their matchup zone defense and allow opponents to take 3's at the 32nd highest rate in the country . The team doesn't allow much penetration which may be an issue for a streaky UConn team. We'll see if R.J. Cole is up to the task tonight.

I'm going to bet on UConn not being able to while Nova holds off the physicality of the Huskies frontcourt that is third in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Connecticut is third in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, but the Wildcats held the Huskies to below their offensive rebounding rate in the prior two matchups, south of 27% in both, well below the 37.9% Hurley's group averages on the year.

LEAN: Villanova -2.5 (-110)

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 93-85-3 for +4.38 units.

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