Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for August 9: (Back Wheeler and Miller)
You've likely noticed a trend with the Counting on Quality Picks: There are a lot of Phillies and Mariners bets.
The reason is simple: They have the best rotations in baseball.
Philadelphia has four starters with double-digit quality starts, two at 15 or more.
The Mariners are even better, with the same number of starters in double figures, but three of four with at least 15.
This gives these teams a great opportunity to win each time these pitchers hit the mound and that's what we're looking for in this exercise and that's where we're headed for today's picks.
All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies and he's managed 16 quality starts in 22 starts on the season.
Before losing to the Phillies on Thursday, the Diamondbacks had been on a roll, closing in on as the Dodgers fumbled the National League West.
In addition, Wheeler hasn't been as good on the road, pitching to a 3.13 ERA vs 2.48 at home.
One the flip side, the Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has been better on the road than at home.
I'm not sure it matters as Wheeler is the better pitcher and that's the advantage we're looking for in this endeavor.
The Diamondbacks are hot and feisty, so it won't be easy, but Wheeler and the Phillies get it done.
PICK: Phillies Money Line -142
New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Pick
Despite the best starter's ERA in baseball (3.32) and 70 quality starts on the season, very few Seattle games are easy, because the offense is putrid.
How bad? The Mariners are 27th in runs scored, 29th in batting average, 27th in OBP and 28th in slugging.
That means every Mariner game is a battle with a thin margin on either side.
Just last night Seattle fell behind Detroit 3-0 early and you felt like the game was over, before the Mariners rallied for three in the 9th for a 4-3 walk-off win.
Bryce Miller has tossed quality starts in half of his 22 starts on the season, while the Mets' Jose Quintana has just eight quality starts in the same number of games started.
Miller hasn't been spectacular in 2024 and in many ways has been the weakest of the four Mariner quality starters.
But he has been good at home, pitching to a 2.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in Seattle.
Meanwhile, Quintana has been horrendous on the road and profiles more of an innings eater than a quality starter.
That said, this Mariners offense can make any starter look good on any given day.
Admittedly, this is partially a vibes play after Seattle's walk-off win last night, counting on the fans to bring it for at least one more night, helping propel the Mariners to a win.
PICK: Mariners Money Line - 120
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.