Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for July 12 (Back Skubal, Suarez and Ryan)
Another positive day puts the record in this endeavor at 4-1 over the last week, missing a perfect record by a single run.
That said, in this business a close loss is still a loss, but there are lessons to be learned from that loss as the game played out exactly as I had originally thought it would, but I was lured out of my initial position by better odds and it cost me.
On to today's slate, which offers up some intriguing matchups, even if Paul Skenes isn't on the hill for the Pirates today.
All picks are for 1 unit unless otherwise specified.
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction and Pick
We start off with a weird matchup in the Motor City, with Tigers ace Tarik Skubal facing the Dodgers James Paxton.
Skubal has 13 quality starts on the season, including his last three starts against the Phillies, Twins and Reds.
Detroit is 12-6 in Skubal starts and opponents are batting .177 against him at home, where he is 6-0 with a 1.74 ERA.
Paxton has six quality starts on the season and the Dodgers are formidable everywhere as their 27-20 road record indicates, but this pitching matchup is heavily in the Tigers favor.
PICK: Tigers Money Line -135 1.35 Units
Oakland A's vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Pick
Ranger Suarez has 13 quality starts on the season but has come back down to earth in his last few starts, giving up 11 earned runs across 9.2 innings against the Marlins and Braves.
There's no shame in the Braves getting to you, but the Marlins? Yikes.
This is the perfect proverbial "get right" spot for Suarez, at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 9 starts
The A's aren't very good anywhere, but Oakland is a horrendous 13-35 on the road, while Philadelphia is 36-14 at home.
On top of that the Phillies are 14-4 when Suarez starts and average 5.8 runs when he's on the mound.
PICK: Phillies Run Line -1.5 -132
Minnesota Twins vs San Francisco Giants Prediction and Pick
Joe Ryan has 11 quality starts in 18 outings on the season and has been better away from home, registering a 2.78 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in nine road starts.
Ryan has been consistent, if unspectacular, throughout the 2024 season, with his ERA fluctuating little from mid-April on.
Kyle Harrison has seven quality starts of his own, but I like this Minnesota offense, which comes in at fifth in the league in OPS+ (112) and on-base percentage (.324) and third in slugging (.432).
PICK: Twins Money Line -135 1.35 Units
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.