Counting on Quality: Best MLB Quality Start Picks for June 21 (Backing Imanaga, Kirby and Rodriguez)
The last thing someone with my overall record in these quality start bets should do is brag, so let's call the next paragraph "reviewing recent history".
After a horrible start, with some misguided wagers, I've righted the ship a bit in the first half of June, going 9-5 and am up a tepid 1.52 units for the month.
I still have a long way to go to get back even, but that trek continues with Friday's slate.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga comes in with eight quality starts in 13 outings, a 1.89 ERA and a 7-1 record in his first MLB season.
While there will undoubtedly be regression at some point, especially given Imanaga's xERA of 3.07, he's been lights out at home, with a 1.31 ERA and 0.80 WHIP at Wrigley and the Cubs are 11-2 when he starts.
On the flip side, the Mets are countering with Jose Quintana, who's 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA and a 6.68 ERA on the road.
PICK: Cubs Money Line -157
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins
As you probably know by now, I love betting on the Mariners, because no other team has more quality starts (46) on the season with George Kirby contributing eight of those in 15 starts.
Kirby hasn't been great on the road, but has been better lately as his 2.25 ERA on the road (12.1 IP) shows.
Miami counters with Trevor Rogers, whose ERA (5.03) and xERA (5.09) are closely aligned and neither is good.
Rogers has been better in his last two outings, but the fact remains that the Marlins are 1-13 in his starts and only average 2.06 runs for Rogers in his starts.
Kirby is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three June starts and the Mariners have won four straight times he's started.
Mariners Money Line -156
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros
Grayson Rodriguez gets the start in Houston as the Orioles come to town to face the mercurial Astros.
Rodriguez has been good on the season, with a 3.20 ERA, an above-average 3.63 xERA and six quality starts in 12 outings.
He hasn't been great on the road, but most of that is due to one bad outing where he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings. Otherwise, his ERA is 2.76 on the road.
The Orioles are 9-3 when Rodriguez starts and support him to the tune of 6.86 runs per 27 outs.
The Astros are countering with Jake Bloss who will be making his Major League debut.
Bloss has been getting rave reviews from General Manager Dana Brown, but has only 18 minor league starts and 80.2 professional innings under his belt as he makes his way from Double-A Corpus Christi directly to Minute Maid Park to face one of the best teams in MLB.
There's always the give and take of who has the advantage when hitters have never seen a pitcher, and generally, it is believed the pitcher is in the better position, at least the first time through the lineup.
On the flip side, as late as April 28 Bloss was toeing a Class A rubber for Asheville in South Atlantic League and he's pitched less than 45 innings above A ball.
The Astros have also used their top three high-leverage relievers two consecutive days, meaning they will be less likely to have Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly or Josh Hader available today.
Houston will again be without Kyle Tucker and while Yordan Alvarez returned to the lineup yesterday, the Astros are banged up all around and are struggling to score.
For the first time all season, I'm going to place a wager at more than one unit on this one.
PICK: Orioles Money Line -166 1.50 Units
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.